College Football Playoff Scenarios: What Each Top 10 Team Has To Do To Get In

The idea of a scenario to get into the College Football Playoff is loose, at best.

This could be really boring. If Georgia, Florida State, Washington, and the Big Ten Champion are all 13-0, that’s it. That’s the College Football Playoff four, and there’s no need for a committee and all of these weekly exercises.

The point of the committee isn’t to determine the playoff matchup if there are four obvious teams. It’s to be the voice of reason when there are five worthy teams. Or seven

The committee can pick anyone it wants. It could take three MAC teams and your Aunt Ginny’s fruit salad if it wanted. Actually, that’s not entirely true - at the moment, James Madison and Jacksonville State are as eligible for this as a concoction of canned syrupy fruit, marshmallows, and coconut. And we know how this works.

Since the start of the College Football Playoff in 2014, the precedents have been the same, and they haven’t changed a lick.

Go 13-0 and win your Power Five Championship - IN.

Go 12-1 and win your Power Five Championship - IN, unless you’re 2018 Ohio State and you got rocked by Purdue, and Notre Dame went 12-0.

Finish with two losses - OUT. It’s not fair - especially if those two losses were to two teams in the CFP - but it worked out that way so far because there have always been four other options.

Finish 12-1 or 11-1 and that one loss is acceptable - we’ll talk about it if you’re a top Power Five team.

We have yet to have something truly insane happen so far in this thing - the conference championship games in the first nine years have been about as chalky as it gets, with even the “upsets” not exactly anything crazy.

So with all of that in mind, here are the nine Power Five programs who are still unbeaten or have one loss - they all have a scenario to get in. One note, two-loss Missouri is 9 in the latest CFP rankings and one-loss Louisville is 10.

Again, there are no hard-and-fast parts to this. But to keep this in the land of the real ...

College Football Playoff Scenarios

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1. Georgia Playoff Scenario

- Beat Georgia Tech, beat Alabama in the SEC Championship.
Do that and done, over, in as the 1 or 2, whatever puts it in the Peach Bowl.

- Lose to Georgia Tech, beat Alabama in the SEC Championship. In.
12-1 SEC Champion? Yes, in. No matter what.

- Beat Georgia Tech, lose respectfully to Alabama, and hope for chaos.
There can’t be four or more unbeaten or one-loss conference champions, except for Florida State. Maybe. Georgia would almost certainly be the highest-ranked 11-1 team in the pecking order behind the Michigan-Ohio State loser.

2. Ohio State Playoff Scenario

- Beat Michigan, beat Iowa in the Big Ten Championship
Done, be the 1 or 2 seed, (almost certainly) go to the Rose Bowl.

- Lose to Michigan tastefully, pray for a slew of upsets
Florida State losing to Florida would be big. Georgia Tech over Georgia would be fantastic. Texas might need to lose again, and for there to be just two or three unbeaten or one-loss Power Five champs. So ...

- Basically, lose to Michigan … OUT.

- Beat Michigan, lose to Iowa … problem.
The committee would take the unbeaten or one-loss SEC and Pac-12 champions, one-loss Big 12 Champion Texas, and 13-0 Florida State ahead of a 12-1 Big Ten Championship loser.

3. Michigan Playoff Scenario

- Beat Ohio State, beat Iowa in the Big Ten Championship
Done, be the 1 or 2 seed, (almost certainly) go to the Rose Bowl.

- Lose to Ohio State tastefully, pray for a slew of upsets
(See this same part of the Ohio State section.)

- Basically, lose to Ohio State … OUT.

- Beat Ohio State, lose to Iowa … problem.
(Again, see this same part of the Ohio State section.)

4. Washington Playoff Scenario

- Beat Washington State, win the Pac-12 Championship, IN.
No matter what.

- Lose to Washington State, win the Pac-12 Championship ... PROBABLY.
Hope for Texas and/or Bama and/or Florida State to lose one of their last two games.

- Beat Washington State, lose the Pac-12 Championship, almost certainly OUT.
No TCU thing of last year is happening this year without a miracle - that has to start with Oregon losing to Oregon State.

5. Florida State Playoff Scenario

- Beat Florida, beat Louisville for the ACC Championship ... IN.
No matter what. Yes, really. The College Football Playoff committee isn’t leaving out a 13-0 ACC Champion ... unless it goes totally wacky and takes a 12-1 Georgia that loses close to Alabama in the SEC Championship.

- Lose to Florida, beat Louisville for the ACC Championship, and pray.
It would be a huge help if Georgia beats Alabama - the committee might take 12-1 SEC championship-loser Georgia over 12-1 ACC Champion FSU without Jordan Travis. FSU would be the lowest-ranked of the 12-1/unbeaten Power Five champs.

- Beat Florida, lose to Louisville in the ACC Championship … OUT.
It’s possible to get in, but out. There would be way too much traffic ahead of the Seminoles and no respect would be given to finishing second in the ACC.

6. Oregon Playoff Scenario

Remember, Oregon already has one loss, so ...

 - Beat Oregon State, beat Washington in the Pac-12 Championship, Part 1 ... probably in …
IF Georgia beats Alabama. If that happens, Oregon would almost certainly get in over a 12-1 Big 12 Champion Texas.

- Beat Oregon State, beat Washington in the Pac-12 Championship, Part 2 ... probably in …
IF Georgia beats Alabama and/or Texas loses and/or Florida State loses and/or Michigan/Ohio State winner loses to Iowa.

- Beat Oregon State, beat Washington in the Pac-12 Champion, Part 3 ... probably out …
IF Alabama goes 12-1, Texas goes 12-1, and Florida State and Big Ten Champion go 13-0.

7. Texas Playoff Scenario

Remember, Texas already has one loss, so ...

- Beat Texas Tech, win the Big 12 Championship, Part 1 … IN
If it’s one of the four unbeaten/one loss Power Five conference champions.

- Beat Texas Tech, win the Big 12 Championship, Part 2 … IN
If Georgia wins the SEC Championship, and Florida State and/or (maybe) Washington go 12-1.

- Beat Texas Tech, win the Big 12 Championship, Part 3 ... IN, but ...
If Alabama beats Georgia, in. MAYBE.

Texas is in if Florida State loses one of its last two games, but if FSU goes 13-0, and Big Ten Champion goes 13-0, and Washington goes 13-0, Texas is out without Bama beating Georgia, and then it has to hope the committee gives proper credit for the 10-point win in Tuscaloosa.

One more wild possibility …

- Beat Texas Tech, win the Big 12 Championship, Part 4 … IN, sort of ...
Alabama beats Georgia, Oregon beats Washington, in. MAYBE.

In this scenario, the committee will want to put in Alabama, and it would want to give Texas credit for its win over the Tide. It would likely leave out Oregon - but that’s a 50/50 shot. At this point, eye test kicks in. It wouldn’t be a bad thing for the Longhorns to roll in their final two games.

8. Alabama Playoff Scenario

Remember, Alabama already has one loss, so ...

- Beat Auburn, beat Georgia for the SEC Championship, Part 1 … IN
IF Texas loses to Texas Tech or in Big 12 Championship, or if Florida State loses to Florida or to Louisville in ACC Championship, or if Oregon wins the Pac-12 Championship, or Ohio State/Michigan winner loses to Iowa.

- Beat Auburn, beat Georgia for the SEC Championship, Part 2 … OUT
Maybe, if Florida State, Washington, and Big Ten Champion go 13-0, and if Texas wins the Big 12 Championship, especially if it wins in dominant fashion. OR …

- Beat Auburn, blowout Georgia for the SEC Championship … IN
Maybe - in no matter what Texas does, just because the committee would respect the momentum of the rolling Tide and would ignore the ten-point home loss to Texas.

This isn’t as likely as everyone is making it out to be - the committee would likely take Texas if it was down to one team - but it’s possible.

Remembering that 9-2 Missouri is 9 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings ...

10. Louisville Playoff Scenario

Remember, Louisville already has one loss, so ...

- Beat Kentucky, beat Florida State, Texas loses one of its last two … IN.
If Texas loses. The College Football Playoff committee has never left out a 12-1 Power Five champion except for 2018 Ohio State, and that’s because Notre Dame was 12-0.

- Beat Kentucky, beat Florida State … IN, MAYBE.
If Iowa wins the Big Ten Championship, and if Georgia rolls Alabama, and if Oregon loses to Oregon State but wins the Pac-12 Championship.