North Carolina vs Baylor prediction: NCAA Tournament Second Round pick and college basketball game preview.
North Carolina vs Baylor Game Preview, NCAA Tournament Second Round How To Watch
Date: Saturday, March 19
Game Time: 12:10 pm
Venue: Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX
How To Watch: CBS
Records: North Carolina (8 seed, 25-9)
Baylor (1 seed, 27-6)
Why North Carolina Will Win
That’s how you handle a 16 seed.
Baylor came out and ended Norfolk State’s season after about five minutes in the 85-49 win.
It hasn’t always been smooth, but the Bears were great over the second half of February on, the first round loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament was a positive – they got a full week off to recharge – and now they’ll need everything to click.
The Bears have to do what they do and attack the offensive glass – or, at least, hold serve with the Tar Heels on the boards – and they should be able to run the offense and get moving without any sort of a problem.
Turnovers and mistakes aren’t a problem for Baylor, and they’re amazing at coming up with steals and turning them into flash points. They had 24 assists and forced 15 turnovers in the first round win, but …
Why Baylor Will Win
Baylor hasn’t skipped a beat since losing the presence of Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua on the inside – this is a big team with enough 6-8ish guys who can get on the glass – but this is the first game where not having that one extra option could hurt.
Baylor has size. The Tar Heels are bigger.
North Carolina managed 46 rebounds in the dominant 95-63 win over Marquette, it remained great from the free throw line, and against type, the threes were flying and falling.
Getting on the offensive glass isn’t everything for the Bears, but it’s a big plus. That’s not happening like normal against this group – there aren’t going to be second chance points.
Baylor will want to run and keep running, but that’s not a problem for the Tar Heels who don’t necessarily care about hitting the three and are happy getting up and down the floor.
So it all comes down to …
North Carolina vs Baylor: What’s Going To Happen
Field goal percentage.
North Carolina is going to make about 47% of its shots, because that’s what it does.
Baylor is 21-0 when it’s 47% or better from the floor and 6-6 when it doesn’t.
North Carolina allowed 44% from the floor, is 0-6 when allowing 51% or better. When it allows under 46% it’s 20-1 – with the one loss coming in the ACC Tournament to Virginia Tech.
This all worked against a Marquette team that can’t shoot consistently well and can’t come up with rebounds. Baylor has the combination of size, speed, and midrange shooting ability to get by the badly under-seeded Tar Heels.
North Carolina vs Baylor Prediction: NCAA Tournament Second Round, Lines
Prediction: Baylor 78, North Carolina 73
Line: Baylor -5.5, o/u: 148.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 1.5
North Carolina vs Baylor Must See Rating: 5
5: Winning one game in the NCAA Tournament
1: Winning a conference championship … if you don’t win one game in the NCAA Tournament