No, there isn’t the win-and-get-in College Football Playoff drama in this, but it could decide the 1 seed.
No. 1 ranked Oregon is obviously the 1 no matter what if it wins, but would Penn State be on top if it wins and Texas thumps Georgia in the SEC Championship?
For James Franklin, this would chill on the insipid “can’t win big game” thing - he won 71% of his games with the Nittany Lions over 11 years, won the 2016 Big Ten title, and his team is in the CFP. But yeah, this is a big game, and Penn State gets its shot.
A win for Oregon would complete the Year One take over of its new conference. It wouldn’t mean Ohio State and Michigan would quit playing college football, but it would be a huge moment for one of the new kids from the coast on the block.
After a somewhat stunning loss to Washington in last year’s Pac-12 Championship, now Dan Lanning can get his first conference title.
Nov 30, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning runs out with the team before a game against the Washington Huskies at Autzen Stadium.
© Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images
Penn State vs Oregon, Big Ten Championship: How to Watch and Game Preview
Date: Saturday, December 7, 2024
Game Time: 8:00 pm
How To Watch: CBS
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Teams: Penn State (11-1), Oregon (12-0)
CFN Bluesky | CFN X | CFN FB
- Championship Week Schedule, Predictions
Why Penn State Will Win
Methodical.
It might not be exciting, and it might not be the style of football Nittany Lion fans want, Penn State averages five yards per carry, it doesn’t turn the ball over enough to matter, there aren’t enough penalties to make a difference, and the team has a way of steamrolling its way to wins.
Get lots of first downs, hit the short-range passes - Drew Allar is connecting on 71% of his throws - and rely on the nation’s fourth-best defense to take care of the rest.
Again, it might not always be aesthetically pleasing, but it works. As long as the Nittany Lion defense is keeping the Oregon chunk plays to a minimum, and if the great pass rush is bothering Dillon Gabriel, steady might win this race unless …
Why Oregon Will Win
Oregon has to take Penn State out of its comfort zone. We saw what happens when the Nittany Lion offense gets stress-tested.
It has the talent, the quarterback, and the athletes, but the only time this all opened up out of necessity was against USC in a wild 33-30 win, and that was the one time the O made a ton of mistakes with three turnovers.
The main problem with the Penn State style is how it sometimes keeps both teams in the game. It works - it’s 11-1 and in the Big Ten Championship - but if Oregon can rip it up on its first two drives, that changes everything.
The Ducks outscored opponents 96-36 in the first quarters this season, and put up 164 in the second. This isn’t as explosive an offense as you might think, but it’s brutally efficient in a mid-range way.
Penn State actually averages more yards per completion, but Dillon Gabriel is more accurate for an attack that moves at a much quicker pace. It’s more than fine going fast. Penn State is far more methodical.
Penn State vs Oregon, Big Ten Championship: Who Will Win?
This is the fifth meeting between the two programs.
Ki-Jana Carter and Kerry Collins rolled by the Ducks in the 1995 Rose Bowl, Oregon won at Penn State in 1964, Penn State won at Oregon to start 1963, and the two hooked up in the 1960 Liberty Bowl - a 41-12 Nittany Lion win.
The assumption is that this is more of an Oregon coronation - Ohio State is really supposed to be here but it’s still recovering from a horrific choking incident - but watch out.
It’s not like Penn State is playing with house money here, but there really is an attitude thing that seems to be happening.
The Penn State slate has been dogged. It lost respectfully at Ohio State, and it has a bad reputation for playing with fire after too-close calls against Minnesota, USC, and Illinois. But it rolled through everyone else.
Oregon will be a little crisper when it has to be, and the defense with the Big Ten’s best pass rush will come through late. But don’t be shocked at how well Penn State plays.
Penn State vs Oregon, Big Ten Championship Prediction, Betting Lines
Prediction: Oregon 27, Penn State 23
Line: Oregon -3.5, o/u: 50.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 5
