The first batch of College Football Playoff rankings came out Tuesday night, but those are just for show.
There's some banter, a few shaken fists, but whatever. The committee is going through the paces to show everyone where each top college football team stands, but all that matters is the final top 25 that comes out after the conference championships.
Realistically, there are 30 teams with a shot at one of the 12 spots. Which teams are still alive and which ones are done?
Oct 26, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) celebrates with wide receiver Jayden Thomas (83) after a touchdown during the first half against the Navy Midshipmen at MetLife Stadium.
© Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
College Football Playoff teams realistically still alive
So here's how this works. This is NOT a ranking of how good the 30 teams are. This is a ranking of their likelihood of getting into the new College Football Playoff.
It's based on the current record, remaining schedule, and how good the teams are. You'll notice that a slew of Group of Five teams are bunched up high - of course they're not all getting in.
But the top Group of Five conference champion gets a bid, so this is factoring in the possibility that Boise State loses the Mountain West title game and the rest step up.
Teams are higher in this if there's a realistic shot they'll at least play in a conference championship - win your Power 4 title, get an automatic bid. Scroll down for the teams realistically out of the CFP hunt.
30. Syracuse (6-2)
29. Louisville (6-3)
28. Arizona State (6-2)
27. Memphis (7-2)
26. Colorado (6-2)
25. Missouri (6-2)
24. Louisiana (7-1)
23. Texas A&M (7-2)
22. Pitt (7-1)
21. Ole Miss (7-2)
20. Washington State (7-1)
19. LSU (6-2)
18. Alabama (6-2)
17. Kansas State (7-2)
16. Army (8-0)
15. Clemson (6-2)
14. Indiana (9-0)
13. Tulane (7-2)
12. UNLV (6-2)
11. SMU (8-1)
10. Iowa State (7-1)
9. BYU (8-0)
8. Boise State (7-1)
7. Texas (7-1)
6. Notre Dame (7-1)
5. Miami (9-0)
4. Penn State (7-1)
3. Georgia (7-1)
2. Ohio State (7-1)
1. Oregon (9-0)
Finished. It’s over. Let’s go take a steam …
These are the teams that are realistically out of the College Football Playoff hunt. Some might have a crazy outside shot if a million things go right, but ... nah.
ACC
Boston College, Cal, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State, North Carolina, Stanford, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
American Athletic Conference
Charlotte, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Navy, North Texas, Temple, Tulsa, UAB, USF, UTSA
Big Ten
Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, UCLA, USC, Washington
Big 12
Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, UCF, Utah, West Virginia
Conference USA
(Realistically, no CUSA team will be in the College Football Playoff mix, so all ten teams are here.) FIU, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Liberty, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, Sam Houston, UTEP, WKU
Independents & Pac-12
Oregon State, UConn, UMass
MAC
(Realistically, no MAC team will be in the College Football Playoff mix, so all 12 teams are here.) Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami University, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan
Mountain West
Air Force, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Jose State, Utah State, Wyoming
SEC
Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Sun Belt
Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Jacksonville State, Marshall, Old Dominion, South Alabama, Southern Miss, Texas State, Troy, ULM
