10 Best College Football Predictions Against the Spread: Week 6

This is that weird week that qualifies as the dog days of the college football season.

It's not like the NHL or NBA with a nine-month season and game-upon-game in February that just feels like drudgery. It's more like the big games aren't happening.

When Missouri vs Texas A&M is the only game among ranked teams on October 5th, there's a problem. 

That doesn't mean there aren't investment opportunities out there. 

With that said, there's nothing more humbling at times than doing this piece.

My goal is to hit 60% or better - get six of these right. Obviously I'd like to do better, but that isn't practical in a real world. That's why I have the defensive back mentality on a pick that doesn't work - just make the next play, but ...

That Georgia loss hurt. 

Not only did I pick Georgia over Alabama, I said at 28-0 that it would come back and do something special. It's just one game - a loss is just like any other loss, and ...

Here are the ten best predictions against the spread for Week 6 of the college football season.

Picks So Far: 41-25

10 Best College Football Predictions Against the Spread: Week 6

Week 5 CFN Expert Picks
UCLA at Penn St | Texas Tech at Arizona
Missouri at Texas A&M | SMU at Louisville
Iowa at Ohio State | Auburn at Georgia
Ole Miss at So Carolina | Rutgers at Neb
Clemson at Florida St | Tenn at Arkansas
Michigan at Washington | Miami at Cal

10. Navy at Air Force

Line: Navy -10
Pick: Navy

AND

Point Total: 36.5
Pick: Over


Doubling up on this first slot because 1) I KNOW BETTER, but 2) I don't feel right not rolling with it because it's a moral imperative to at least throw it in here.

I know you're not supposed to assume anything in the military academy games. I also know you're always supposed to go under no matter what - last year Air Force won 17-6.

But so far this season Air Force has been stunningly awful, and Navy has been stunningly great. 49, 38, 56, and 41 - that's how many points Navy has put on the board so far. 

It would be malpractice to not keep riding that run of games where the team scored enough points to handle the over in this by itself. 

Same drill, different game, Part 2 ...

- Game Preview & Prediction

9. Army at Tulsa

Line: Army -13.5
Pick: Army

Until Army stops destroying teams by a bajillion, we stay on the ride. Army has yet to win any of the four games by fewer than 17 points. Tulsa is 1-4 vs FBS teams and just lost by 32 to North Texas.

Same drill, different game, Part 3 ...

- Game Preview & Prediction

8. Miami at Cal & Virginia Tech at Stanford

Line: Miami -10.5, Virginia Tech -8.5
Pick: Cal, Stanford

I'm not sold on Miami at all, and I'm only half believing that Virginia Tech is about to rise up and be the team we all thought it would be. Yes, they both got an extra day off after their thriller last Friday, and they both have to make the long trips to the Bay Area.

At least one of the former Pac-12 teams will win outright.

- Virginia Tech at Stanford Preview & Prediction 
- Miami at Cal Preview & Prediction

7. Appalachian State at Marshall

Line: Marshall -3
Pick: Marshall

I debated whether or not to go with this, or the over on the 58.5. Marshall's only sin was playing at Virginia Tech and at Ohio State. Appalachian State's defense has been way too hit or miss, Marshall's offense has yet to stretch its legs, and ... fine. This is a straight home-play-vs-mediocre-D pick.

6. Nevada at San Jose State

Line: Point Total 51.5
Pick: Under

Warning: I never do well with spite picks. San Jose State has burned me all year, but this is more about Nevada.

The defense has held everyone - including SMU and Minnesota - to under 30 points - and there's not enough offense in the bag to push through a San Jose State team with 15 days to prepare. 

Speaking of teams that burned me at every turn so far ...

5. SMU at Louisville

Line: Louisville -6.5
Pick: Louisville

SMU has burned me at every turn - I can't get this team right at all because nothing so far has followed any sort of a pattern, and personnel moves haven't been obvious one way or another with the spread. So I'll make this simple.

I think Louisville is really good, and I don't buy into SMU even after the 42-16 win over Florida State and 66-42 win over TCU.

It's SMU's first road game since beating Nevada 29-24 in Week 0.

- Game Preview & Prediction

4. Tulane at UAB

Line: Tulane -17.5
Pick: Tulane

I'm sure Trent Dilfer is a nice guy, but this has been a struggle.

UAB lost to former head coach Bryant Vincent and his ULM team 32-6, and last week got rolled at home by Navy 41-18.

Tulane has found its groove. It fought to get by Louisiana, but that 45-10 win over USF last week is more like what this team should be.

- Game Preview & Prediction

3. Texas Tech at Arizona

Line: Point Total 63.5
Pick: Over

I'm well aware that I'm being flaky this week - I'm writing this at 5:28 in the morning - and this one is simply a don't-think-just-pick, pick.

This will end around 3 am ET, it's a national game on FOX, and every bar will have it on and EVERYONE will have something on it.

You don't pick the under in a late night game like this.

Now, you might have to stay up to watch the whole thing - the last three Arizona game haven't been within a hundred miles of 64 total points - but this should be a firefight. 

- Game Preview & Prediction

2. Utah State at Boise State

Line: Point Total 65.5
Pick: Over

The total is WAY too high for my liking, but Boise State has put up 56, 56, and 45 in the three wins - and 34 in the loss to Oregon. It'll do all of the work, and Utah State will help pipe in with at least 20 points to help the cause.

1. Temple at UConn

Line: UConn -17
Pick: UConn

AND

Point Total: 50
Pick: Over

Okay, let's do this again. Two bites at the apple in one slot.

UConn is destroying teams at home. It rolled Buffalo - who showed up large in a win over Northern Illinois the week before - 47-3, and ripped up Florida Atlantic 48-14. At home the Huskies have scored 63, 48, and 47.

As always, whenever there's a reasonable chance that one side might take care of the point total by itself ...

Temple has been a tad surprising here and there - beating Utah State 45-29 was madness - but it can score a bit. However, UConn has allowed a total of 34 points in the three games at home. 

- Game Preview & Prediction