5 Best College Football Predictions Against the Spread: Championship Week

So I went a mediocre 5-5 last week for Rivalry Week - I'm saving myself for the bowl blowout extravaganza of picks, and God help us all trying to figure that mess out.

Yes, I face-planted on the strong calls of Texas A&M covering against Texas and Ohio State blowing out Michigan, but I did give you Syracuse covering - and, perhaps, winning outright, which it did - along with enough to break even, and ...

I know, flip a coin and you'll go .500.

There are only nine championship games to choose from, so I have to be extremely tight here. IN GENERAL, I like the home teams - although UNLV scares me - when it comes to conference title matchups, and more than that, I like chalk.

Seriously, give me the one totally wacky conference championship upset in the College Football Playoff era. 

I didn't start out great, but that's prepping me for what's coming in the bowls. Picks 4 and 5 were for Friday night - just scroll past those, at least No. 4. After going 1-1 last night, here we go with a big final day of the college football regular season.

Thanks for hanging with me all year. Let's do this right ... 

5 Best College Football Predictions: Championship Week

Fiu Bluesky | CFN X | CFN FB

Results So Far: 95-51

5. WKU at Jacksonville State: Conference USA Championship

Spread: Point Total 57.5
ATS Pick: Over
Game Preview & Prediction

POST-GAME NOTE: This was NOT how I thought this would go - but won't give back the W. I assumed WKU would put up a fight in a back-and-forth shootout, but it took a late Jax State score on a bit of a bullspit blowout-game play call to get us there in the final moments. Over don't care how over got over.

It's a conference championship game, and WKU just beat the Gamecocks 19-17 last week, but now it's for real. 

WKU needed last week's game, Jacksonville State didn't. The Gamecocks certainly tried, but it's not like they brought their A material.

The Rich Rodriguez attack, has been good for well over 30 points per game up until it dealt with the terrific Sam Houston defense, and then last week. Now the energy will be there, the explosive plays should come, and WKU should keep up. 

Getting to 58 is big, but seven of the 11 Gamecock games got there. Two that didn't were over the last two weeks, one other was a 44-7 win over Southern Miss, the other a 31-21 win at Liberty.

These two should open it up. 

4. Tulane at Army: American Athletic Championship

Spread: Tulane -4.5
ATS Pick: Tulane
Game Preview & Prediction

POST-GAME NOTE: I'm actually stunned at how awful this was. Either you can handle the Army attack, or you can't, and wow was Tulane not even close. Yeah, it was a miss, but this was more like a fundamental miss - I thought Tulane's defensive front could handle this, and it really, really didn't in the 35-14 loss that wasn't even that close.

I'm well aware that I'm an awful person and a miserable American for not thinking the service academy teams are all that great - especially considering the Army style of offense is my favorite thing to watch in all of sports. 

There's one big part of this that concerns me. Tulane did a whole bunch of scrimmage winning this year. Most of the victories were against the light and breezy, and then when it came time to play a decent team - Memphis 34, Tulane 24, and that's when it mattered.

Here's my other problem. Notre Dame. 

The Irish had a seemingly dangerous game against Navy and ended up winning 51-17. And why? More talent, more size, better run defense. And then when it had to deal with Army, what happened? 49-14 Notre Dame.

Tulane took out Navy in Annapolis a few weeks ago 35-0. The Midshipmen managed just 113 yards of total offense, the Green Wave actually did whatever they wanted, and I can't unsee it. 

Navy and Army play different styles, but ...

I'll take the chance on the 4.5, even on the road.

Here we go with the three ones I like for Saturday.

3. Georgia vs Texas: SEC Championship

Spread: Texas -3
ATS Pick: Georgia
Game Preview & Prediction 

For the record - and for your purposes - I'm not in love with any of these three Saturday picks. (And also, for the record, I LOVED Tulane against Army - that worked out well.)

That, and I'm believing my own flaming bag of hooey here that Georgia is about to start playing like it's supposed to.

I'm aware that Texas is just that good and I keep picking it to lose. I'm also aware that I'm not fortunate enough to get this right twice - I picked Georgia outright in the first meeting. 

And yes, Texas is traveling to Atlanta - there will be orange in the building - but it's the Mercedes-Benz. This is Georgia's house, and it's an underdog.

Again with the blah, blah, blah I've been saying all year. Georgia is the better team here. It just needs to play like it.

2. Marshall vs Louisiana: Sun Belt Championship

Spread: Louisiana -5.5
ATS Pick: Louisiana
Game Preview & Prediction

This is going at Ragin' Cajuns -6 at several sports, and 5.5 at most. 

There's no getting too technical here, because Marshall is more than good enough to pull this off. I'm actually going against my original call and official pick here - this is me being spooked after Friday night.

FOX tried to make the Mountain West game interesting, but three Group of Five conference championships, three home games, three double-digit wins without a ton of problems - maybe a few for the Broncos - for the home side.

Again, for the most part there haven't been a ton of big upsets over the years in conference title games. Army, Boise State, Jacksonville State - put Louisiana next as a winner on its home field as part of this championship weekend.

The 5.5 is a wee bit high - again, Marshall is good - but Louisiana offense should be in control throughout.

1. Clemson vs SMU: ACC Championship

Spread: Point Total 55.5
ATS Pick: Under
Game Preview & Prediction

If this will be any sort of a shootout it'll likely come from the SMU side.

I've been saying on all shows this week that we don't quite know what SMU is yet. It didn't play Miami, or Syracuse, or Georgia Tech, or Clemson, but it did go on a roll against a slew of mediocre teams.

It won five of its last six games by double-digits, but the defense had a lot to do with that. I don't have a real handle on this, but I sort of think this will either be a low-scoring fight, or one side will roll the other. I can't quite see the Clemson offense going crazy in a 34-30 fight.

The Tigers haven't scored 24 against an FBS team since October 19th. My guess is they'll want to control the clock and keep this in the 20 for both sides.