5 best predictions for the Divisional Round round of the NFL Playoffs. What appear to be the best bets and picks?
The Wild Card round is the buffet of various carbs and fillers. The Divisional Round has the prime rib and crab legs.
This is it. This is everything to the hardcore NFL types. The Super Bowl … your mom watches the Super Bowl. Championship Sunday is big, but this is the weekend we get the best bulk games. Four of them that all take on a life of their own.
I’ll try to find the five best picks against the spread – and point totals – out of them.
As I mentioned for the Wild Card round, with so few games to choose from, the reasonable goal is to bat .600, and I got that last week going 3-2 thanks to the obvious call of Dallas over Tampa Bay and Jacksonville’s easy-peasy walk in the park win – and the over – against the Chargers (yeeeeeeeeeeeeesh).
I overestimated Buffalo, underestimated San Francisco, and I might just do it again – at least with the latter – starting with …
Click on each game for the game preview
5. NFL Playoffs: Dallas at San Francisco
LINE San Francisco -4
ATS PICK Dallas
Warning, I’m going to underestimate the guy yet again – it hasn’t been working well for me.
No, the definition of insanity is NOT doing the same thing over and over again and expecting the same result. However, picking against Brock Purdy hasn’t exactly shown sound judgement so far.
The guy has been absolutely magnificent.
If it was, say, Kenny Pickett, or Sam Howell, or even Trey Lance, he’d be hailed as the next big NFL thing. But because he’s Brock Purdy, and because he’s a third-string option, and because he was Mr. Irrelevant – that whole tag and bit annoys me for some reason; does that mean Travon Walker was Mr. Relevant? – it’s hard to fully buy in.
Every NFL quarterback has a clunker at some point, but seriously? 67%, 13 touchdown passes, four picks, unbeaten as a starter in these big games?
This is more about Dallas.
Going along with the name recognition thing, if this wasn’t Dallas, and if it wasn’t carrying all this baggage and all of these expectation, it might be favored.
The one giant worry I have is time. San Francisco played on Saturday morning, Dallas played on Monday night, and Dallas had to travel. The 49ers are getting close to two days of extra time off. That’s a problem, but I’m going with talent.
Dallas has the combination of offensive firepower and defensive playmaking that the 49ers – and Purdy – haven’t had to deal with yet. I’d like to be getting a little more than four, but I’ll take it.
And I’ll probably pick against Purdy in the NFL Championship, too.
Speaking of digging the underdog on the road …