Georgia vs LSU SEC Championship prediction, game preview, odds, how to watch. Championship Week, Saturday, December 3
Georgia vs LSU SEC Championship Prediction Game Preview
Georgia vs LSU How To Watch
Date: Saturday, December 3
Game Time: 4:00 ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
How To Watch: CBS
Record: Georgia (12-0), LSU (9-3)
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Why LSU Will Win
The pressure is totally off.
That’s not necessarily a good thing – whiffing against Texas A&M in a 38-23 loss last week kept LSU from being able to make a case for the College Football Playoff with a win in the SEC Championship – but now the team can turn it loose.
This is WAY ahead of where things were supposed to be under Brian Kelly.
The first year was supposed to be good, but Alabama was supposed to be in Atlanta this Saturday. If it wasn’t Alabama, it was going to be Texas A&M. If it wasn’t A&M, if might have been Ole Miss. It certainly wasn’t supposed to be LSU coming off a dud of a 6-7 2021 and in need of a slight rebuild.
The team is playing with house money. There might not be a national championship this season, but an SEC Championship? That would be massive.
On the flip side, the pressure is off Georgia, too.
It can say it really wants to win this, but it’s in the College Football Playoff no matter what. If LSU brings the intensity, this could be more than just interesting.
Do pull this off, though, the running game has to continue to work. It’s averaging five yards per carry, and it at least has to come close. Georgia hasn’t allowed five yards per pop yet this year, but Missouri hung around averaging 4.9, Oregon ran well even though it got destroyed. Just about everyone else who couldn’t run got blasted.
That means QB Jayden Daniels has to be on the move from the start, the offense has to convert on third downs – it’s second-best in the conference at that – and it has to keep the clock moving. Georgia can strike quickly, but the more LSU can grind this out, the better.
The O should be efficient, Daniels is accurate, and …
Why Georgia Will Win
You don’t think Stetson Bennett and that crew wants this?
The 2021 Georgia team was epic. It broke through and gave the school its first national championship since 1980.
It wasn’t the SEC Champion.
The 2021 Dawgs lost to Alabama 41-24 last year, and that means the 2022 version loaded with a whole slew of new starters and parts doesn’t get that. This is this team’s chance to put a stamp on its own legacy. Of course, it needs to win the national title to make this season a true success, but around that program, yeah, this matters.
Georgia has to strike fast. This isn’t exactly one of those teams that needs momentum to win, but when it gets rolling early, forget it.
LSU is hardly bad in the first quarters of games, but defensively the first is the worst allowing 71 points – it scored 74, by the way.
Georgia has outscored its opponents 101 to 16 in the first quarter and 244 to 60 in the first half.
LSU has the pop to come back and make this a battle even if it gets down, but that’s a big ask. Georgia is No. 1 in the SEC and fifth in the nation in third down conversions, No. 1 in the SEC and third overall in third down stops, and No. 1 in the SEC and seventh overall in time of possession.
Get up fast, take the air out of ball with the running game and effective drives. That starts with the lines, and it continues with Bennett who should be able to hit the third down throws against this secondary without a problem.
There won’t be any reason to take any big chances.
What’s Going To Happen
Yes, LSU beat Alabama. Alabama isn’t playing defense like Georgia is. No one is playing defense like Georgia is.
It’s going to start with the nation’s second-best run defense – James Madison is No. 1, by the way. LSU is 0-2 – going to Florida State and Tennessee – when it failed to get to 140 rushing yards, and so far this year only Oregon was able to run on the Dawgs for 140 and they lost 49-3.
Daniels really is that good, and he’s going to have to get hot right away, but he can only run so much.
LSU won’t get steamrolled, but Georgia will score early and keep it all steadily going. There will be a few big plays, but it’ll be a methodical SEC Championship win.
Get comfortable. Georgia will be back in Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 31st for the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl and the first round of the College Football Playoff.
Georgia vs LSU SEC Championship Prediction, Line
Georgia 37, LSU 16
Line: Georgia -18.5, o/u: 50.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Georgia vs LSU SEC Championship Must See Rating (out of 5): 4