College Football Win Totals 2021: Who Overperformed, Underperformed, How Did We Do?

Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

College Football Win Totals 2021: Who Overperformed, Underperformed, How Did We Do?

College Football Predictions

College Football Win Totals 2021: Who Overperformed, Underperformed, How Did We Do?

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Before the 2021 season started, we did all the previews and made all the predictions. How did the teams do compared to their projected win totals? How were our picks?


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2021 College Football Win Totals: How did everyone do?
CFN Preseason Projections. Who Finished …
+3 to +5 | +2+1, 0, -1 | -2 | -3 to -6
2021 Preseason Betting Lines. Who Finished …
Over +5.5 to +2.5 | +2 to +1.5+ 1 to +0.5 | Even
Under -0.5 to -1 | -1.5 to -2 | -2.5 to -6

It’s our drill we do every offseason.

We do all the previews, all of the research, and then we try to get the picks and the projected win totals as close to the pin as possible.

Sometimes we’re dead-on right, sometime we miss by 20 miles, but as long as there’s some logic and reason behind everything, it all tends to work out fine.

How did every college football team do compared to their 2021 projected win totals? Here were our win total predictions, along with the general consensus win total betting lines for each team and the regular season wins.

The goal is always to be +/-1 one way or another with our predictions, but more importantly to the investment world, did we get the over/under totals right?

To cut to the chase, last year we were on the right side of the consensus betting world preseason win total for 57 teams, were on the wrong side for 46 of them, were even/push on 26, and Rutgers didn’t have an official win total.

And the betting lines? The Over came through for 61 teams, the under for 59,  and 9 pushed.

Who overperformed, who underperformed, and who came in about where we thought they did. Again, this is just the regular season – no conference championships or bowls.

College Football Win Totals 2021: How did everyone do?

The number after each team is the difference – positive or negative – in how much each team overperformed or underperformed compared to the CFN 2021 preseason projections.

Win Totals: We Missed BIG. “No one respects us.”

Michigan State 5

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 5
Regular Season Wins: 10

Utah State 5

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 4
Regular Season Wins: 9

UTSA 5

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 6
Regular Season Wins: 11

Baylor 4

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 6
Regular Season Wins: 10

Northern Illinois 4

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 4
Regular Season Wins: 8

Old Dominion 4

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 2
Regular Season Wins: 6

UTEP 4

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 3
Regular Season Wins: 7

Wake Forest 4

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 6
Regular Season Wins: 10

Arkansas 3

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 5
Regular Season Wins: 8

BYU 3

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 7
Regular Season Wins: 10

Fresno State 3

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 6
Regular Season Wins: 9

Houston 3

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 8
Regular Season Wins: 11

Louisiana 3

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 8
Regular Season Wins: 11

North Texas 3

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 3
Regular Season Wins: 6

Oklahoma State 3

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 8
Regular Season Wins: 11

Oregon State 3

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 4
Regular Season Wins: 7

Pitt 3

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 7
Regular Season Wins: 10

San Diego State 3

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 8
Regular Season Wins: 11

ULM 3

CFN Preseason Win Total Prediction: 1
Regular Season Wins: 4

2021 College Football Win Totals: How did everyone do?
CFN Preseason Projections. Who Finished …
+3 to +5 | +2+1, 0, -1 | -2 | -3 to -6
2021 Preseason Betting Lines. Who Finished …
Over +5.5 to +2.5 | +2 to +1.5+ 1 to +0.5 | Even
Under -0.5 to -1 | -1.5 to -2 | -2.5 to -6

NEXT: Win Totals: We Missed A Bit. Good For These Teams

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