What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 11? This week we go West for some of the more interesting predictions of the week.
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– College Football Playoff: 25 Instant Reactions
Results So Far ATS: 62-48-1
After a rocky run it’s time for a road trip to shake things up a bit.
This week we go west for most of the 10 best predictions against the spread. There’s a reason for this – there are a TON of good-looking matchups – Nevada shouldn’t be an underdog against San Diego State and Utah State will probably beat San Jose State outright.
But first come the tried and true foundation selections.
While the picks have been up-and-down over the last few weeks – fewer games to choose from and less big spreads to exploit like there are in September – the overall record is still solid because of four core beliefs.
If you’ve been with the program, you know by now that …
1. Always go over on a point total in the mid-30s. Too many things can go right, unless it’s Army-Air Force, which once again proved to defy all laws of logic and reason.
2. Always go under on a point total in the mid-70s. Too many things can go wrong, like a torrential downpour late in the Pitt-North Carolina game.
3. Always take the underdog if it’s getting 45 points or more. Games can be blowouts without being brutal.
Over the long haul, if you stick with those three principles you should be okay – as long as you’re using good judgment, like going over on the Wednesday night Central Michigan-Kent State insanity.
Two of the three are foundations are represented this week, and there’s a fourth tried and true belief that – if you’ve been with this all year – has done you a big-time solid.
We kickoff our trip out west by making a stop at the fourth core belief for 2021. You ALWAYS go against …
Click on each game for the preview
10. Kansas at Texas
LINE Texas -30.5
ATS PICK Texas
Full disclosure – I wouldn’t come near this if it didn’t involve Kansas, but as the man said, you dance with the one that brung ya.
Oklahoma couldn’t get the job done against Kansas against the spread a few weeks ago, but that’s been it. 1-8 ATS – including not covering the +24 in a 35-10 loss to Kansas State last week – to continue an epic heater of a run going back to the beginning of last year.
Texas is a mess.
It completely lost its stuff ever since that fourth down run by Caleb Williams halfway through the loss to Oklahoma. However, as bad as things look, the five teams Texas has lost to – at Arkansas, Oklahoma (in Dallas), Oklahoma State, at Baylor, at Iowa State) are all terrific.
How many times as Kansas lost by more than 31? Three in the last seven games.
Whatever. It’s Kansas, there’s a spread, and we stay on the ride until it stops for good.
So that’s one of the staples. Another foundation pick …
LINE Alabama -51.5
ATS PICK New Mexico State
Besides the gimmicky aspect of always taking the underdogs with a point spread this high, this actually isn’t a bad call.
Of course New Mexico State will get annihilated – it lost 62-10 to Bama back in early 2019, hence the number – but this version can actually score a little bit.
No, it’s not going to keep up, but all you’re looking for are 10-to-14 points, and the Aggies can do that.
Mercer got 14 on this Tide team back in September. Southern Miss got rolled 63-14. Neither one of those games pushed past the 51.5, and New Mexico State is better.
As always with these picks, think of it this way – you’re walking into the stadium up 51-0. It can be a total wipeout – like 63-14 – and you’re fine.
Keeping with the weekly foundations, the over.
LINE 37 Point Total
ATS PICK Over
Last week in the exact same spot I said the exact same thing.
Too many things can go right with a low 37 point total, like one team can get the job done all by itself.
Last week here at the 8: Wisconsin 52, Rutgers 3.
Minnesota scored 41 against Northwestern. Before that it scored 34 against Maryland and put up 31 on Nebraska on the way to hitting the 30-point mark six times so far.
The problem is Iowa.
This team just doesn’t score. Something is wrong if you’re beating Northwestern 17-12, and yes, I demanded you go over on the low point total against Wisconsin. Both teams sort of decided they were done early in the fourth of a 27-7 Badger win.
It’s a point total of 37, and it’ll probably drop.
Before going west, two ACC games.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 7: Notre Dame at Virginia