What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 10? After one of the wildest weekends ever, we’re righting the wrong.
Week 10 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Week 10 Experts Picks: College
– CFN Week 9 Experts Picks: NFL
– Week 10 Schedule, Game Times, Game Previews
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College Football Playoff Rankings Breakdown
I’m a professional.
I’ve seen it all, done even more, and I know well enough that when a pick goes the wrong way, you have a short memory, brush it off, and move on.
Last week was something … different.
I was already mad that the over didn’t come in my absolute lock of Wisconsin-Iowa at 36.5 – it stalled at 34 when both teams basically quit with 13 minutes to play and had a TON of chances to score.
Fine. It happens.
So Oregon and Cincinnati didn’t play like teams that really want to make big national statements against bad teams. Okay, no big deal.
That didn’t bother me, but Wyoming and San Jose State was going absolutely nowhere – until the Cowboys scored in the final moments to hit the over on the 41.
And then there was the game that will live in infamy.
Everyone had a part of Clemson and Florida State one way or another.
The under on the 48 was supposed to be a rock, all was fine, and … well, you know what happened.
I literally had to take a walk around the block on that one.
But that’s the deal. This is the life we’ve chosen. The belief systems are sound, you don’t stray from what you know to be right, and that’s why these picks are all correct.
We deserve it after the Death Valley Disaster.
So how do we get over this? We start with a pick that I know in my heart is probably wrong, but …
Results So Far ATS: 58-42-1
Click on each game for the preview
LINE 77 Point Total
ATS PICK Under
This pick is wrong, but a man is nothing without his principles.
When finalizing the picks in the game previews, I always go with the score before looking at the lines – I don’t want to be influenced one way or the other.
In this, we went with a shootout that goes just over the 77-point total. But if you’ve been with this piece all year, you know that over the long haul, if you do the same thing every time you will be up if …
You ALWAYS go under on a massive point total of 80 or more, and 77 is close enough.
Wake Forest games are wild, North Carolina has thrown a couple of 59 spots on the board, but – and there are no such things as jinxes or curses … I think – we’ve nailed this dead-cold this year when going with the unders on massive totals.
Like the under on Wake Forest-Duke last week, which came at 51 on the 71.5.
As always, if it’s wrong, then you’re paying for the entertainment of a wild game, and enjoy the show.
(Everyone, now take a deep breath, because we’re diving right back in and about to right a horrible, horrible wrong.)
If you have kids around, please don’t let them look at this NSFW pick …
LINE 46.5 Point Total
ATS PICK Under
Yeah, this is an all-timer YOU OWE ME, WORLD of a chaser, but like Clemson -4, and if it’s not too soon for you – I still have leftover trays of meats and cheeses sent to me by close friends and acquaintances after the day of mourning – go back in on the point total.
We were right. We were ALL right.
Of course the under was the play last week on Florida State-Clemson.
OF COURSE it was.
It took an all-timer of a final play – brilliantly broken down by Scott and Steve on their Bad Beats segment – for us to lose that.
The pick didn’t come in. It doesn’t mean we were necessarily wrong, and the same belief still holds.
Clemson games are really, really, really low scoring. Take out that putrid late touchdown, and the Tigers scored 23 points or fewer in every FBS game.
The Louisville defense isn’t playing that poorly, and the offense only came up with 13 on NC State. It’s not likely to crank it up in the high 20s here.
While we’re purging all of last week’s pain and suffering by begging for more of it, let’s go with another before moving on to more mature picks for serious people.
Wisconsin, let’s go.
LINE 37 Point Total
ATS PICK Over
It’s the SAME thing.
It took something catastrophic to lose the Florida State-Clemson point total, and it took something totally weird to get the Iowa-Wisconsin total wrong.
Just like you always go under on the massive point totals, you always go over on the puny ones. Too many things can go right, and in this, there’s one thing that might really make this work.
Wisconsin could hit the 37 all by itself.
The Badger offense is still awful, and it would be more than happy to get up 23-3 and sit on the ball for the last half hour of the game.
I know, three of the last four Wisconsin games haven’t hit 35, much less 38. I know, the last two Rutgers games made college football sad – and they didn’t get to 35, either.
Michigan State scored 31 on Rutgers. Ohio State got to 52.
Fiiiiiiiiiine, the under is the smart, sensible call considering how amazing the Badger D is, but all you’re asking for is 27-10 to get there, and anything else to go over.
Never let a point total of 37 go to waste.
Next, a point total that shouldn’t be right, and if it is, it’s not your fault …