What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 9? This week … the extreme point totals
Last week I needed to stop a slide before it became an avalanche, so I went with a few tried-and-true belief systems and ended up going 6-4.
I’ll take it. We can do better.
The whole point of this is to try to find discrepancies in the market. Where is the betting public going wrong, and how can we all exploit it? This week, there’s one potentially massive thing happening that we’re crazy not to to at least take a shot at.
The point totals.
If you’ve been along for the journey all year, and maybe even for several seasons, you’ve hopefully been able to get nice and fat on the unwavering belief that you ALWAYS go hard on the under on a college football point total of 80 or more, go strong with the under on 75 or higher, and dabble tastefully when it’s at 70.
Last week I hollered that the WKU-FIU point total of 77 was silly-high, and it came in at 53. I also said to stay away from the over on 76 in Ole Miss-LSU, and it came in at 58.
Of course this doesn’t always work, but people love, love, love going with the over, and in college football, you have to take advantage of that.
There’s a flip side – the way-too-low point totals.
Just like you need a ton of things to go the right way to get an over on 75+, you also need the world to go bonkers to get an under on 40.
The idea is to dare the extreme to actually come through and be just that extreme.
And with all that pretentiousness in mind, we kick this thing off with …
Results So Far ATS: 54-36-1
Click on each game for the preview
LINE 48 Point Total
ATS PICK Under
You know that giant pile of bull muffins I just spewed about going to the extremes? Yeah, do that, but sometimes you have to buy into the Maya Angelou paraphrased world of poetry, quips, and betting …
When a team shows you who it is, believe it.
If these 2021 Clemson Tigers come out and hang 58 on the board, then tip your cap, accept the moment, and cheerfully move on, because that offense so far really, really isn’t working.
Clemson hasn’t scored more than 19 points in and of its last three games. It only went over 20 once against an FBS team this season, and that was in a 27-21 loss to NC State. Even if this is the day it all kicks in, the Tiger defense is good enough to keep down the Florida State offensive side of things.
If Clemson can hold Pitt to 27 points, it can keep the Seminoles under wraps.
Okay, so you’re not buying in. Let’s try this the other way …
LINE 71.5 Point Total
ATS PICK Under
As I mentioned before, 80, and you go under head first and don’t ask how deep the pool is. 71 … ehhhhhhhh, yeah, but dip your toe in first.
Again, a whole lot of things have to go right for two teams to combine to score 72 points, but this one is a bit different.
The total opened at 69.5. America saw this, remembered the 70-56 craziness of Wake Forest’s win over Army last week – full to-be-warned disclosure, I adored the under on 59.5 in that – and it instantly shot up to 71.
Duke was shutout last week against Virginia and scored seven three weeks ago against North Carolina – the Cavs and Tar Heels aren’t exactly the ’85 Bears defensively.
But I get it. Wake Forest has allowed 34 (Louisville), 37 (Syracuse), and 56 (Army) over its last three games, but going over on 71 is an outlier for Demon Deacon games even though it happened the last two weeks.
I promise, we’ll get to actual games and picks soon, but keeping with the theme …
LINE Point Total 73
ATS PICK Under
Last week the under on WKU vs FIU was here in the 8 spot, and it hit easily. No, I’m not superstitious, but if something works, you go with it until it doesn’t.
WKU has one of the nation’s most dynamic passing games as the program went big to fix the glitch of the last few years – if you were with this last season, unders on WKU games were gold because that team couldn’t score – but 73 is a tad high even against a suspect Charlotte pass defense.
The 49ers allowed 13 touchdown passes in the their last four games, got ripped up by the Middle Tennessee air attack, and got hit for 466 by FIU. Both of those games blew past 73.
There’s going to be a lot of sweating on this – these two offenses should be terrific – but 1) it’s supposed to be soggy and rainy in Bowling Green, Kentucky on Saturday, and 2) it’s a point total of 73. Give it a shot … but lightly.
Okay, okay, let’s throw an actual against the spread pick in here …