What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 8? This week … the belief system will save the season.
I know what cold streaks are like, and this isn’t really one of them. However, before things start to get too chilly, we’re turning this around right here, right now.
I’ve gone .500 over the last two weeks following my 9-1 run – and the cocky attitude that followed – and that’s just not okay.
What do you do when everything starts to break down? You go with your core belief system to bail you out. So this week, here are ten picks that are based almost entirely on my beliefs of what I know to be right and true in this college football world.
And if that fails …
But it won’t, because I believe that with every fiber of my being that these ten picks are going to work … maybe.
Results So Far ATS: 48-32-1
Click on each game for the preview
LINE Cincinnati -28
ATS PICK Cincinnati
I’m still honked after last week because I was absolutely right.
I knew the Wisconsin run defense was going to stuff the Army option offense – it allowed just 179 rushing yards.
I factored in the awful Badger offense along with the sure-thing one deep shot that Army would connect on, and all was going perfectly well for the amazing D to cover the 14 against the option O.
And then Army scored 14 in the fourth to wreck all our fun in a 20-14 Wisconsin win.
As the line goes, I screwed up, but I wasn’t wrong.
This is different than Wisconsin-Army, though, because the Navy option offense isn’t all that great and the defense is lousy.
The Cincinnati defensive front has yet to allow more than 170 rushing yards, it’s great at getting behind the line to stop this thing before it starts, and it’s got NFL talent in the defensive backfield that can tackle.
The Bearcats have beaten all four non-Power Five teams on the schedule by more than 30.
1-5 Navy is about to deal with a team desperate to show off in a College Football Playoff run.
LINE Texas A&M -20
ATS PICK Texas A&M
Texas A&M is nothing like I thought it would be.
The defense has been disappointing, the offense has sputtered, and it’s been a rocky season with horrible performances being offset by an all-timer against Alabama.
My core belief that this was going to be one of the best teams in the country isn’t right, but the defense appears to be finally starting to kick it in, and the offense is finding its pop.
Playing Missouri will help both of those things – the Aggies rolled easily last week in Columbia.
Now they get South Carolina, a plucky 4-3 team that pushed Kentucky and …
The Gamecocks don’t score enough.
It’s Texas A&M, so you’re going to have to sweat this out hard against a team with a solid defensive front, but South Carolina barely survived Vanderbilt, and East Carolina, and Troy. Two weeks ago it lost on the road to Tennessee by 25 and was dropped by Georgia 40-13.
The hope is for the A&M offense that scored 41 on Bama and 35 Missouri to show up. If that happens, the 20 is fine.
8. WKU at FIU
LINE Point Total 77
ATS PICK Under
If you’ve read this piece at all over the years, you know my unshakeable belief that you always go under on a point total of 80 or more, and you push that down a wee bit if needed.
75 or more, go under – too many things can go wrong to keep the teams from getting to the high 70s, and if they do, think of the lost investment as a worthwhile payment for the wild entertainment of a game played in the 80s.
I did this last week with Ole Miss-Tennessee set at 83. It wasn’t even remotely close in a 31-26 game.
The world was trying to sell you on Louisiana-Arkansas getting to 70 on Thursday night. 28-27 Ragin’ Cajuns.
This isn’t just some goofy belief – people like betting the overs, and in general, they’ll play up the total as the week goes on because they know what the offenses can do.
The last few FIU games – bad defense, high-powered passing game – were able to get into the high 70s, and WKU lost to UTSA 52-46 and Michigan State 48-31.
But FIU isn’t UTSA or Michigan State.
You’ll be nervous that WKU will crank up 60 on its own and make this easy, but if this one doesn’t work out and it does go over, then this next pick will make up for it …