7. Tulsa at USF
LINE Tulsa -7.5
ATS PICK USF
Buyer beware on this – I’ll freely admit that this is based more on a hunch than anything truly analytical, and there’s a reason.
We haven’t seen USF play anyone who’s not a whole lot better.
The last outright win by USF over an FBS team came on October 26, 2019 over East Carolina. I never like to mess with streaks – especially ones that go 16 in a row and span a few years – but there’s an interesting aspect to this.
The last four losses in 2019 came against a strong Temple team that went bowling, and to loaded-and-ranked Cincinnati, Memphis, and UCF teams.
Out of the nine FBS losses last year, only a blowout to East Carolina was truly unacceptable. The 39-37 loss to Temple was close, and the other six losses were to terrific teams and/or on the road.
The four losses this year? NC State, Florida, BYU, SMU. All of them ranked, all of them strong.
Tulsa has been dangerous. It lost to UC Davis, but it beat Memphis, pushed Oklahoma State, and …
The defense isn’t close to as good as it was last year. USF is finally playing a team its own size, and it’s at home. It’s overdue for a good performance.
BTW, if you want to take stupid to another level, USF is +250 on the money line.
LINE Texas Tech -17.5
ATS PICK Texas Tech
This was the spot last week occupied by the pick of Alabama over Texas A&M. It’s going to take something special to flush out the negative vibes, so I’m going with something special.
If Texas A&M outright win defied every aspect of logic, analysis, and reason – that was NOT your fault for picking the Tide – then the only thing that can erase it is something even more freakish.
Before the season, a friend of mine pointed out that picking against the Jayhawks was solid gold throughout 2020, and he was sticking with it.
I tried to tell him that Kansas would beat South Dakota, and it did – by 3, not 13.5.
I tried to tell him that Coastal Carolina might be just okay – by the way, there’s your other freakish team, but the other way – and Kansas would at least cover. To be fair, the line ended up at 27 and that was the final difference, but most of the world got in before it went up to that.
Baylor rolled at will, Iowa State won by 52, and despite Duke doing everything possible to try letting the game die – and needing a late stop to hold the line – Kansas still couldn’t get there.
It’s a road game, and the Red Raider defense has gone bye-bye, and the Jayhawks have had two weeks off, and …
We keep on riding this train until it stops. Whenever it does, we tip our cap and thank it for the wonderful ride.