What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 6?
I apologize for really and truly thinking Vanderbilt was going to act like the SEC program it is against UConn. Instead of it being a layup of a Commodore blowout, it took a late rally to survive 30-28 and not covering the 14.5
I failed you, America.
I promised you something special after going 4-6 in Week 4, and going 9-1 ATS isn’t good enough.
(Or, to move the dial off the snooty-brag setting, if you’ve followed me over the years you know this means the time for the HARD fade is soon to come.)
Pushing that boulder up the mountain again …
Results So Far ATS: 39-21-1
Click on each game for the preview
LINE Point Total 66.5
ATS PICK Under
And it’ll probably get up to closer to 68 by gametime.
First, 66.5 is hard to get to, even for these two teams. Last year these two got the respective Os going and it still landed on 54.
Second, if you believe Arkansas is going to pull this off, it’ll probably do it controlling the game and tempo throughout.
No Hog game this year – even with 40 put up against Texas and 45 against Georgia Southern – got to 67. Three of the four Ole Miss games got past the mark, but the one that didn’t was against Alabama when the Rebels couldn’t stop the run.
Think of it this way. Georgia couldn’t have been better last week and it only got 37 on the Hogs.
LINE Point Total 71
ATS PICK Under
The hard and fast rule is to never, ever take the over when the world is asking for 80, and that worked out just fine with the under on Ole Miss and Alabama last week – they got to 63.
But what about 72? Ehhhhhh, not close enough, but worth a shot here on the biggest point total of the day.
Maryland-Ohio State opened at 72.5 and dipped down a bit. No one likes to take the under on a major game that everyone will watch, but getting past 71 is a large ask.
If the game gets there, then blow off the loss, sit back, and enjoy the show.
Maryland might be improved, but it only hung up a big number on Howard. It’s not getting 62 on Ohio State, and the second-best scoring output was 67.
Yeah, some might have visions of the wild 52-51 Buckeye win in 2018, and the 31 allowed to Minnesota and 35 to Oregon is enough to worry. This will get into the 60s, but 72 is a push even for these two.
LINE North Carolina -17.5
ATS PICK North Carolina
Florida State was able to close out last year with a win over Duke, and it beat Jacksonville State along the way. The stunner for that awful, awful team was a 31-28 win over a North Carolina squad that did just about everything offensively but score more points than the other team.
That won’t be an issue this week.
The Tar Heels have been way flaky – hello, Georgia Tech 45, UNC 22 – but that wasn’t in Chapel Hill, and neither was the Virginia Tech game. They annihilated Georgia State, Virginia, and Duke, and now it’s a revenge game with FSU coning in.
Sam Howell will throw for over 300 yards getting off the bus.
Revenge Game Part 2 …