What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 5?
Results So Far ATS: 30-20-1
After a crazy Week 4 – and a nightmarish 4-6 run of picks – it’s time to recalibrate and get back to getting this right. It all starts with this …
Do you really believe? You’ll get the idea.
Click on each game for the preview
LINE Georgia -18
ATS PICK Georgia
A host on one of the radio hits I did the other day asked a two-part question. Is Arkansas for real, and is Georgia actually good enough to cover this spread?
I answered a question with a question – making for riveting radio. Can both things be true?
I do believe in Arkansas. It’s not perfect, but it’s doing all the little things right, the defense is the real deal, and we have to start giving more respect to the good win over Texas as the season goes on.
But I’m starting to think Georgia might be the No. 1 team in college football, and I’ve said this over and over and over again over the last few days.
So do I really believe this? Yeah. Arkansas is just that good, but the Georgia defense is otherworldly. The Hogs could battle hard and still lose 27-6.
Yeah, I really believe that the 2021 season is on a collision course of Alabama vs. Georgia in an epic SEC Championship. So …
LINE Alabama -14
ATS PICK Alabama
Best of all, the money is coming thundering in on Ole Miss. The line started out at -17.5 and it’s down to -14 as there’s more and more buzz about this fantastic Rebel team and Heisman contender QB Matt Corral.
There’s one problem.
Louisville, Austin Peay, Tulane. We’re supposed to crown Ole Miss for rolling in those three games?
This team’s a blast, Lane Kiffin is a blast, and Nick Saban’s head will explode if his team doesn’t pull off a win in this after screaming for weeks that it’s not doing all the little things right.
However, I’ll really believe in the Ole Miss defense when it really does come up with a meaningful stop against someone other than Indiana in last year’s bowl finale.
Sort of like the call on Georgia, the Rebel offense can absolutely work and the final score could still be 47-30. More on that in a moment.
Actually, more on that now …
LINE Point Total 79.5
ATS PICK Under
Forgive this column full of self-indulgent tripe to become even more tripey.
I really believe that you always go with the team getting over 50 no matter what. If I’m Mercer walking into Bryant-Denny Stadium up 54-0, I say thank you and go on about my day – Bama won 48-14, by the way.
I also really believe that you never go over on a point total of 80.
It would be fantastic if this pick is wrong. I’ll happily take the L on this to see a wild show between these two high-powered teams, but it’s SO hard to get to 80 points.
For all the fun Bama has been this year, no game got past 79 – although the 63-14 win over Southern Miss flirted with that. Ole Miss got there last week with a 61-21 win over Tulane, but again, that’s so rare.
The SEC Championship against Florida – 98 points – and the 63-48 win over Ole Miss were the only two times the 2020 Bama team played in a game with 80 or more, and that was one of the greatest offensive juggernauts in college football history.
Ole Miss, however got well past 80 in five of its ten games last year.
Keep going under on 79.5, and you’ll be fine.
Also, you’re almost always right to take the over on a preseason win total of 1. Case in point …