What games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the Week 2 weekend of the college football season?
Results So Far ATS: 14-6-1
Last week was all about the favorites picking all ten to crank it up and win easily – the picks went a decent 6-4.
The real killer over all was the under – there was a massive wave of lower-than-expected scoring games that made Week 1 either very good or very rough for the investors.
This week a few underdogs are sprinkled in, but in general, 1) the lines still seem a tad too high on the totals – go under until the shift to normal comes – and 2) the favorites still look good in the over-reactionary second week.
So let’s start with an interesting dog that might be creeping up come Saturday …
Click on each game for preview
LINE Ohio State -14.5
ATS PICK Oregon
And now we get the hook.
Sort of liked this when it opened at Buckeyes -11.5, loved at 14, yay at the 14.5 it bumped up to after news of the Kayvon Thibodeaux injury came out.
Oregon’s mediocre performance in the win over Fresno State solidified the double-digit line – it would’ve been around 9.5 had the Ducks won by 30 instead of 31-24 – but blow that off.
Oregon is one of the few teams in America that can run with Ohio State. It’s got the athletes, it’s got the talent, and it’s got the guys to potentially pull this off outright if Ohio State QB CJ Stroud struggles and if the O line doesn’t take over.
The Buckeyes should pull this off, but the 14.5 is a tad too high.
LINE NC State -1
ATS PICK NC State
It went from a Pick to NC State -2.5 to Pack -1.
That all might be tremendous undervalue considering Mississippi State isn’t very good at college football under Mike Leach.
It needed to pull a 35-34 win over Louisiana Tech out of the fire, the offense still isn’t working like it’s supposed to, and that’s coming off a 2020 that started and ended well and was a disaster in between.
Somewhat quietly, NC State has the upside, experience, and talent to be the second-best team in the ACC if it can put together a a string of consistent performances.
Nah, you never like the ACC over the SEC on the road, but the real spread should be NC State -8ish instead of just the 1.
LINE Miami -9
ATS PICK Appalachian State
Warning … I’m trying to make a pick happen here.
I firmly believe that if I make a prediction with enough conviction, it’ll happen.
I take full responsibility for picking Michigan State into the 2014 Rose Bowl, and I’ve been working on making Texas A&M a College Football Playoff team by predicting it to be true.
Maybe I’m not fully committed here – although I probably should be – but I’m trying to make the world believe that Appalachian State is not only the best team in the Sun Belt, but it could win this outright with its experience, running game, and timing by catching Miami between Alabama and Michigan State.
The Mountaineers might just win this outright, and the world is giving us nine points.
LINE South Alabama -14
ATS PICK South Alabama
Welcome to the first of five I Despise Picking Big Spreads When The Underdog Is Totally Awful, I’m Lying, I Love It predictions for this week.
I’m also picking out of spite, even though it was Tennessee’s fault for fumbling late and not covering against Bowling Green.
Until the Falcons can prove they can do something right, I’ll overreact and go the other way.
Akron. A winless 2019 Akron was the last FBS team Bowling Green has beaten in the last 12 games.
More than anything else, I’m in on Jake Bentley – the USA QB who formerly played for Utah and South Carolina. He was brilliant in the 31-7 win over Southern Miss, and he’ll be just fine again this week.
Bowling Green has lost each of its last nine games – and 15 of its last 17 – by well over two touchdowns. It’s about to do it again.
LINE Temple -6.5
ATS PICK Temple
Not only is this the second I Despise Picking Big Spreads When The Underdog Is Totally Awful, I’m Lying, I Love It pick of the week, but I’m also trying to make a pick happen as I combine my belief systems.
I think Temple is better than it’s been playing over the last two years, including in the rim-rocking, 5 turnover-fest of a loss to Rutgers last week. But this is more about Akron.
The Zips lost to Auburn 60-10 – being outgained on the ground 316 yards to -3 – making it seven total annihilations they’ve suffered in the last eight games and 22nd in the last 24.
Temple has hardly been a prize going 1-8 in its last nine games, but you’re asking for a touchdown win over one of the most reliably bad teams going.