NCAA Tournament 5 Best Predictions Against The Spread: First Round Friday

David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

NCAA Tournament 5 Best Predictions Against The Spread: First Round Friday

College Football Predictions

NCAA Tournament 5 Best Predictions Against The Spread: First Round Friday


1. (4) Purdue vs (13) North Texas

LINE: Purdue -7
ATS PICK: Purdue
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

I’m aware you’re not supposed to make picks based on spite, but this is almost entire based on a hatred for a system. So take everything going forward with a few grains of salt.

Nothing at all against North Texas, but a team that finished tied for fifth in its own mid-major regular season conference standings shouldn’t be in the NCAA Tournament over the regular season champion.

WKU went 20-7 on the year. Louisiana Tech won 21 games, UAB won 22, and throw in Old Dominion, and all of them won 11 Conference USA games. Marshall and North Texas won nine.

The Mean Green got hot for a three-day stretch, and to be fair, beat three of the top regular season teams for the conference tournament title. That matters in the NCAA automatic bid world, but the four months of game before that amount to a fat load of jack squat, and …

Sorry. I’m back now.

Again, give North Texas credit for doing what it had to do to get here. Along the way it played well in a 69-63 loss to Mississippi State back in December, it wasn’t awful in a 14 point loss to Arkansas, and it held up well in a 12 point loss to West Virginia and an 11 point loss to Loyola.

All you’re asking for here is a Purdue win by more than seven.

North Texas shoots incredibly well, It was No. 1 in Conference USA in field goal percentage, going 13-0 when hitting 48% or better from the field. When it didn’t get to 48% it was 4-9 with its three worst shooting days of the season against …

West Virginia, Mississippi State, and Arkansas.

How many teams shot 48% or better against Purdue? Three. Illinois, Rutgers, and Clemson.

Purdue is 18-3 on the season when holding teams to under 45% from the field.

North Texas is going to shoot under 45% from the field.

Go ahead. Give away the seven.

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