What 5 NCAA Tournament games appear to be the best bets and the best picks for the over/under point totals going into first round on Friday?
The unpredictability and irrationality of the games themselves are what define the NCAA Tournament. As you’re reading this, your bracket is already busted – really, it is, you just don’t know it yet.
Point totals are different.
Point totals don’t care if that 14 beats the 3 or if the 2 beat the 15 by 54. Here, you should be a wee bit more in control of your investment.
Here are five NCAA Tournament first round Friday games that appear to be a wee bit favorable when it comes to the over/under and point total.
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
Point Total: 161.5
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Even for two high-powered college offenses, 161.5 is a massive number.
Easy math, that means at least one team has to be in the 80s to get there, and that shouldn’t be a problem. The concern is likely going to be Arkansas and how much it wins by.
Colgate averages 86 points per game, but as I pointed out in the 5 Best Picks Against The Spread piece, you and four friends could’ve hung at least 70 on the board against the teams on the Raider schedule.
Arkansas averages over 82 a game, and it’s probably going to get there and then some. How much does the Hog D want to slow down a Colgate offense that scores in bunches, but again, is taking a massive step up in competition?
The best comp to use is the Arkansas 87-76 win over Oral Roberts back in late December. The Golden Eagles bomb away as well as any team in the country – they’re playing Ohio State in the first round – and that game barely got past the 161.5 mark.
Forget the seed, Oral Roberts is a more dangerous team than Colgate – again, forget the stats and look at the competition.
Arkansas-Colgate is more likely an 85-68 type of game than any sort of an even shootout, and even then, there’s a chance the Hogs put this away and sort of coast.
Only nine of the 28 games Arkansas played got to over 161.5 and one of them was in overtime.
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