What appear to be the 5 best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the NFL Conference Championships?
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
It’s argued that this is the best Sunday of the season. Conference Championship Sunday has two Super Bowl-level matchups, it’s all about the anticipation of what’s next, and this time around, we get two special games with four amazing quarterbacks.
What are the five best-looking bets on the board? It’s all about finding the potential value, so when it comes to these – as opposed to our Picks Against The Spread pieces which just looks at the games themselves – it’s all about confirming or denying something you already believe, or maybe sparking an idea for something that just might work.
Again, value, value, value. It might be a long shot, but let’s start with …
LOWEST SCORING TEAM: Packers +400, Chiefs +325, Chiefs +325, Bills +200
PICK: Packers +400
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
As a warning, this pick goes against a whole lot of personal beliefs.
I believe Green Bay will win. I also believe that – and it’ll be a theme later in this – that the key to making these special types of investments is to take the most likely outcome that gives you value.
The most likely of the two outcomes in the two games is for the Bills to lose to the Chiefs. Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay is a wee bit more of a toss-up – even though the lines are close to the same for both home teams – assuming Patrick Mahomes really is okay.
So the smart call here for the lowest scoring team of the four is Bills +200. There’s good value even if it’s the worst among the four teams.
Yes, Green Bay has been an offensive powerhouse and yes, it just hung up 32 on – statistically – the best defense in the NFL in the win over the Rams. However, maybe there’s a shot that Tampa Bay just has this Packer thing figured out.
It seems like it was a million years ago, but in Week 6 the Buccaneers held Green Bay to its lowest scoring game of the season in the 38-10 win. The Packers couldn’t keep the Tampa Bay D line from hitting Aaron Rodgers, with the high-powered O only coming up with 201 yards.
Tampa Bay is No. 1 in the NFL against the run, eighth in scoring defense, and it’s coming off a brilliant performance against the Saints in the 30-20 win.
Remember, this bet isn’t necessarily about one side shutting down another. It’s about winning first, and then hoping the other game is bit more of a shootout.
You can’t go wrong with believing that any of the four teams make sense for this, but the world is offering you a shot at +400 ….