2. The New Year’s Six situation
The top four will work itself out – Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Florida. The four College Football Playoff teams will almost certainly come out of these six.
There’s a great chance three SEC teams will get the call for New Year’s Six games. An ACC team has to go to the Orange Bowl, and if Clemson and Notre Dame are in the CFP, that means Miami would stick close to home to almost certainly play Florida or Texas A&M.
And then this gets tricky.
Cincinnati is slated for the throw-the-little-guy-a-cookie Group of Five New Year’s Six slot, and the Big 12 and Pac-12 champions have to slip in, too.
Assume the CFP will move up some Big Ten team within range – it’s REALLY not going to want two Big 12 teams, Cincinnati, and … BYU.
That’s why the No. 13 BYU ranking matters. It’ll win its season finale against San Diego State, some in the top 12 will lose, and the Cougars will finish around 10.
HOWEVER, if Ohio State somehow gets into the College Football Playoff without winning the Big Ten title, the New Year’s Six will almost certainly be …
Two from Texas A&M, Florida, Clemson, Notre Dame.
Georgia, Miami, Cincinnati (as the Group of Five representative), and the champions from the Pac-12, Big Ten, and Big 12.
No BYU. Maybe.