Florida vs Arkansas Prediction, Game Preview

Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

Florida vs Arkansas Prediction, Game Preview

Fearless Predictions

Florida vs Arkansas Prediction, Game Preview

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Florida vs Arkansas prediction and game preview.


Florida vs Arkansas Broadcast

Date: Saturday, November 14
Game Time: 7:00 ET
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Network: ESPN

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Florida (4-1) vs Arkansas (3-3) Game Preview

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Why Arkansas Will Win

Turnover margin, turnover margin, turnover margin.

What’s been the biggest overall difference this year for the Hogs? They’re better coached, the offense is working, and the defense has been among the best in the SEC against the pass, but it’s been the turnover margin that’s helped the cause the most.

The program is -20 in turnover margin combined over the last four years, and this year’s its +8 so far. In the three wins, the Hogs are +9 with 13 takeaways. In the three losses, they’re -1 with no takeaways in the last two defeats. Florida doesn’t have big problems with turnovers, but it’s given it up at least once in every game with a pick six last week against Georgia.

Arkansas has only allowed 300 passing yards once this year – in a win over Mississippi State – and has 12 picks, but …

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Why Florida Will Win

Kyle Trask is putting up 2019 Joe Burrow-like numbers after five games, and is now the first SEC quarterback ever to throw four touchdown passes in five straight games. On fire, the passing game has been dominant, averaging 369 yards per game with 22 touchdowns and three picks from No. 11.

The defense has stepped it up a bit, too, after having major problems against Ole Miss and Texas A&M in the first part of the season. The run D stuffed Missouri and Georgia – after one big early run – over the last two weeks, and the offense has been too good and too efficient for anyone other than A&M to keep up.

The Arkansas offense has been solid, but it doesn’t have the firepower to keep up. But …

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What’s Going To Happen

Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman not being around as he recovers from COVID matters, but this is the Feleipe Franks game.

The former Florida quarterback returns, and while the Hog starter might not be playing as well as Trask, he’s been outstanding – hitting 67% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and three picks, with two of those coming in the opener against Georgia.

He’ll be good, and the Arkansas defense will be good enough keep this closer than the Gators might like. That was a BRUTAL game against Georgia last week, and it’s going to show – Florida will look sluggish compared to an energized Arkansas.

But the Gator passing game will come through as the game goes on, a few big scoring throws from Trask will ease the tension, and the Arkansas pattern of L-W-L-W-L-W will continue.

Florida vs Arkansas Prediction, Line

Florida 40, Arkansas 27
Bet on Florida vs Arkansas with BetMGM
Florida -17.5, o/u: 62.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2.5

Must See Rating: 3

5: Alex Trebek
1: “Who are three people who have never been in my kitchen.”

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