LINE: Georgia State -3.5
ATS PICK: Georgia State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Let’s start with the dumb reason to like Georgia State over South Alabama, and then comes the real one.
Besides Georgia State being better than South Alabama at college football, there’s the … pattern.
Sorry, but for some in this world, the idea of following a set way of doing things when making a big pick works, and Georgia State has alternated loss, win, loss, win on through the season, and it just lost to Appalachian State, so to hold the pattern, its due for a win.
South Alabama has a pattern of losing three straight games with the offense struggling, scoring a grand total of 33 points in the three.
The Jaguars are stronger than their 3-5 record, and they’re coming off a three-game road run before finally getting back home for the first time since October 24th. They battled Tulane hard early in the season in a tough 27-24 loss, pushed Georgia Southern on the road, and weren’t all that bad in a 23-6 loss to Coastal Carolina.
The problem is an offense that hasn’t been able to do much of anything on the ground and failed to hit 270 yards in two of its last three games. The bigger problem this week is a run defense that allowed 236 yards or more in each of the last three games – USA is 0-5 when allowing 190 rushing yards or more, and 3-0 when it doesn’t.
Georgia State was only held to under 210 yards twice, and that was against Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State – two of the Sun Belt’s superstars.
Going on the road isn’t a problem – the Panthers won at Troy and got into a shootout with Arkansas State – the defense has one of the best pass rushes in the Sun Belt, and the D leads the league in takeaways.
The spread should be closer to ten, and it’s just 3.5.
And, of course, you can’t go against a pattern, because … it’s a pattern.