ATS PICK: San Diego State
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This is based on the belief that San Diego State might just be the best team in the Mountain West, and if it plays up to its full capability, it might not be close outside of what Boise State brings.
New head coach Brady Hoke – on his second stint with the team – has been able to keep the defense dominant while adding a bit more pop to the offense. After years of seemingly winning every game 12-7, now the Aztecs have more of a downfield passing attack.
It’s a road game against a 4-0 Nevada team that’s been amazing so far – especially through the air – but it got by Wyoming at home in a shootout, and then played UNLV, Utah State, and New Mexico. The Wolf Pack have put up gaudy stats against a slew of mediocre-to-awful teams, and there hasn’t been any running game to go along with it.
Okay, okay, okay, so San Diego State beat UNLV, Utah State, and roasted Hawaii at home, and it lost to San Jose State. However, that loss to SJSU was strange – the Aztecs dominated but made a few key mistakes it couldn’t overcome.
The defense has yet to allow anyone come up with 300 yards of total offense, the Nevada defense isn’t anything special – especially against the pass – and SDSU has the exact right mix to pull this off.
It’s No. 2 in the nation in total defense, No. 3 in tackles for loss per game, No. 2 in third down defense, and No. 8 in time of possession. You’re not giving away any points here in a pick ’em game.