College Football Betting Advice, Final Thoughts: Week 9

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College Football Betting Advice, Final Thoughts: Week 9

Fearless Predictions

College Football Betting Advice, Final Thoughts: Week 9

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2:00 to 3:30 ET Gametimes

As I’m typing this, I haven’t seen the latest point total for UCF vs. Houston. I know it was around 82, and it’s … 82.5. Look, it’s going to go over 82.5. I want to believe it, because I want to believe these two teams can and will put on a while show. But a man is nothing without his principles, so …

Never, ever, ever, ever, ever, EVER take the over on anything over 75, much less 82.5. There’s no wrong answer on the ATS winner – UCF -2.5 is basically telling you to go with the winner.
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This could be a totally wrong read, but Southern Miss -1.5 against Rice might be the easiest call of the week. The Owls couldn’t handle the Middle Tennessee offense last week, and the USM coaching change might actually provide a bit of a boost.
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Over, over, over on the Troy-Arkansas State 69.5. The Red Wolves don’t appear to be too interested in the whole defense thing, and the two teams have the offenses to push each side into the 40s. The world is hammering the Trojans, but that’s a plus – now you’re getting ASU -3 instead of 6.
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Can the Irish keep their focus on Georgia Tech when all of the attention is on next week’s game against Clemson? Will Trevor Lawrence play, and can Notre Dame make its statement as a top four team and a true playoff contender? Can Notr … oh. Oh yeah. Irish -20 is just fine.
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If Rutgers can pull this off against Indiana, and if it’s able to at least keep it closer than 11.5, I’ll buy in. Until then … nope. It got lost in the win over Michigan State, but the Rutgers offense didn’t work. IU’s offense will roll like it was supposed to against Penn State.
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It seems like Louisiana Tech should be a better team than +13.5 at home against UAB, but it’s really not. The offense isn’t working, the team just lost to UTSA and struggled against UTEP, and … Louisiana Tech at home getting 13.5. Fine – and value-wise, the +425 on the money line is interesting.
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TCU going to Baylor is one of the week’s under-the-radar interesting games. Neither one is playing for the Big 12 title, but this is one of those mid-section games that will go a long way to determining the final pecking order. Baylor would be fine here straight up, and now it’s getting 3 – people are jumping on the Horned Frogs to boost that up.
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You are out of your mind if you think you have a handle on the Tiger vs. Tiger showdown. Here’s the guess – Auburn’s defense has had a week and some film to work on TJ Finley. As a home underdog, the AU version of the Tigers is the smarter play, but no beef at all if you want to go the other way.
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I don’t quite believe that Northwestern is anywhere near as good as the 43-3 win over Maryland, but I sort of do. I don’t quite believe that Iowa is quite as mediocre as it was against Purdue, but I sort of do. I’m buying into Iowa -2.5 at home against the Wildcats because that’s what we’re all supposed to do, but that’s a total guess.
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Let’s just say it – the Oklahoma State-Texas winner is in the Big 12 Championship. Oklahoma State hasn’t really beaten anyone yet, and Texas is WAY overdue to finally wake up and realize it’s supposed to be good this year. I’m not willing to go against Oklahoma State -3.5 to find out if the Longhorns are going to show up.
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Go ahead and freak out about the Ole Miss defense, but the Vanderbilt offense hasn’t done much of anything against an FBS team since getting whacked 66-38 against LSU in September of last year. The line is Ole Miss -18 – that’s fine. Take the chance that the Commodores can’t score on anyone, including the Rebels.
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Appalachian State is a 31-point favorite on the road against ULM. That’s WAY too much, even if ULM is the worst team in college football. The Warhawks have been bad all year, but they haven’t been totally miserable in all their home games. They should come up with a few late scores to cover, but ASU 44-7 wouldn’t be crazy. To go wishy-washy, there’s no hard lean, but ULM at home with all those points is the smarter play.  
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Virginia Tech has been so flaky for a whole slew of reasons, and Louisville is playing enough defense to pull off the home win and keep it well under the 68 point total, but the Hokies are better. The 3.5 isn’t a big enough price to not like the more talented team.
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