College Football Betting Advice, Final Thoughts: Week 6

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

College Football Betting Advice, Final Thoughts: Week 6

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College Football Betting Advice, Final Thoughts: Week 6

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3:30 to 4:00 ET Gametimes

Two completely different theories here on Georgia vs. Tennessee. The whole point of this piece is to help you confirm what you already believe, so if you think Georgia’s defense is going to rise up and pitch a gem like it did against Auburn last week, then fall in love with the -12. However, if you’re a money line guy and sort of think the Vols might be about to turn a corner, the +400 isn’t insane.
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Until BYU does anything other than look utterly dominant, don’t mess with what’s working. UTSA isn’t playing poorly, and that 34.5 is a HUGE number, but something has clicked for the Cougars. Put it this way, they just throttled a solid Louisiana Tech team 31. Louisiana Tech would be around a 9.5ish point favorite over UTSA.
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It would be nice to get a little more than +340 money line on Texas Tech at Iowa State, but it’s still not a bad value play. The 13-point line is artificially high because starting Red Raider QB Alan Bowman has a banged up ankle, but Iowa State doesn’t win games against decent teams in blowouts, and Texas Tech can keep up with Henry Colombi under center.
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Normally it’s no fun to do FCS vs. FBS games here, but just keep an eye on the line – if you can get it – for Arkansas State vs. Central Arkansas. UCA has been plucky, but that -14 for ASU seems a tad bit of a reach. Arkansas State just got wasted by Coastal Carolina – it’s going to come into this thing with some serious salt.
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Texas State has been all over the ATS map so far in terms of expectations, and Troy is still a wee bit of a mystery. The over on the 59 isn’t a bad call with these two offenses, but Troy -8 seems a bit rich. It’s an unfortunate bad value money line play with Texas State only at +240 – it should be a bit more than that – but if you like the Bobcats +8, that’s not a bad flier.
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Forgive the mixed messages across the board this week, but here’s the call on Arkansas-Auburn. Auburn probably isn’t going to score a gajillion points in what should be a relatively low-scoring battle. I like Auburn to rise up and win by more than the 13.5, especially after the line plummeted down from the 18 at the open. However – considering the Auburn win-and-cover will probably be more like 24-10 than 55-10 – hammer the hell out of the +430 on the money line if you think this Hog thing is close to being real.
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The ACC has its superstars and its dregs, but there’s also this deep mid-section to teams that will beat up on one another. Boston College could absolutely beat Pitt, but this is turning out to be one flaky Eagle team. I’d stay away, but if you must, BC +6 isn’t bad considering it could win this outright, but … again, stay away unless you have a super-strong feeling.
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There’s a massive overreaction to the concern over whether or not Kansas State QB Skylar Thompson will play against TCU. Take advantage of it. Whether he does or not, Kansas State getting 8.5 is a gift from the gods, and it’s possible to get it at +270 on the money line. TCU is good, but  over the last few years it doesn’t win Big 12 games against good teams in blowout fashion.
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For the love of Butch Davis and all that you hold dear, don’t touch FIU hosting Middle Tennessee. The line started out at FIU -6, you can get it at -4.5, and it’ll probably settle in at about 5. These are two weird teams in this early part of the season, which should mean that you go Middle Tennessee and the points, but FIU is overdue, the Blue Raiders are fine as long as they stop screwing up, and … don’t mess with this.
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