College Football Betting Advice, Final Thoughts: Week 5

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

College Football Betting Advice, Final Thoughts: Week 5

Fearless Predictions

College Football Betting Advice, Final Thoughts: Week 5

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WKU and Middle Tennessee might not be the biggest flops of the 2020 college football season – Southern Miss canned its coach after Week 0 – but they’re awfully close. They’re both equally weird. WKU just doesn’t seem interested in doing that whole scoring thing, so -7 on the road is asking for a lot. Middle Tennessee at +230 on the money line is a decent play if you have to do something with this game.

Speaking of money lines …
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Anyone who says he/she has a real line on this Navy-Air Force game is full of bull puckey. This game is a TOTAL guess, so with that in mind, 1) Air Force at home at +220 on the money line is reasonable, especially since 2) it’s only Navy -7, and 3) Navy was awful for six quarters this year and was able to beat Tulane in the final two quarters. Navy had to beat the Green Wave by throwing the ball. Back in the old country, that’s what we call a red flag.
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I know ULM is the worst team in college football. I know it just got Mack trucked by UTEP, who usually can’t run over a paper cup with a Big Wheel. I know, I know, I know … (deep breath). I do think Georgia Southern wins this game, but it’s giving away 20.5 on the road to a desperate team that really should be a whole lot better.

(Deeper breath) If you’re feeling weird and you want to take a ridiculously high-value shot for the stars, if you can get ULM +1200 on the money line … just, yeah.
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I know we’re all supposed to automatically take Georgia and all, but did that team look anywhere close to right to you against Arkansas? I despise ever taking the 7-point favorite to win-not-cover, but Auburn is very good, JT Daniels is likely going to be shaky out of the gate, and this is likely more of a toss-up than it might seem.
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The line is going down for UCF vs. Tulsa? It was up around 22, now it’s down to 21, and it’ll be interesting to see where the public goes from here. Tulsa might have won last year, and the defense was great against Oklahoma State early on, but UCF is a machine with the explosion to push ahead fast. 21 might not seem like a lot after the first half.
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Even if you don’t really believe in the Mississippi State offense quite yet, really? Only -17 against Arkansas? The Hog program has lost by more than 17 in five of the last six games, and in case you’re worried, Georgia’s Stetson Bennett took target practice against the Arkansas D. KJ Costello is every bit that good.
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Oklahoma lost to Kansas State last year, and followed it up with a 42-41 win over Iowa State. Against Power Five teams after a loss, OU has won its following game by more than seven in four of the last instances. The Sooners melted down late against the Wildcats this year – they’re still terrific. Iowa State still has way, way, way too many issues after two games – the seven isn’t a ton for OU to give away.
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Come on, everyone. Don’t try to work too hard on this one. LSU -21 over Vanderbilt. Don’t overreact to the 17-12 Texas A&M win over Vandy or the 44-34 LSU loss Mississippi State … yet. The Commodore D is good, but the O might not score.
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Southern Miss continues to be a colossal pain to figure out. It barely shows up in the loss to South Alabama, it can’t come through late against Louisiana Tech, and the defense melts down against Tulane. It’s overdue for something positive, and getting to go against this North Texas defense should be it. The UNT -1.5 line doesn’t matter – go with who you like.
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It’s not fun in any way to pick against Clemson, ever. It’s torturous to sit there and watch how the Tigers score points with ease when you’ve gone the other way. So if it’s going to bother you to watch the Virginia game with the line at just -28, go with Clemson. The line is about right, so this is hardly a slam-dunk for the Tigers.
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