College Football Betting Advice, Final Thoughts: Week 4

Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

College Football Betting Advice, Final Thoughts: Week 4

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College Football Betting Advice, Final Thoughts: Week 4

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Don’t get influenced by other games … don’t get influenced by other games … don’t. After a wacky first few weeks, this might be when things go back to normal for some of the Sun Belt teams. South Alabama was who we thought they’d be in the Thursday night loss to UAB. Texas State has been fun so far, but Boston College was fantastic in its opener against Duke. 17.5 might not be a heavy lift for the ACC team.
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Don’t just knee-jerk assume that Alabama is a lock at -28 at Missouri. The Tigers have a whole lot of uncertainty, and it’s a new coaching staff dealing with a team that might be the best in college football. But it is the opener for both, and if there’s ever a to catch a team like Bama, it’s this week, but … okay, assume Alabama -28.
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In this wackiest and most unpredictable of years, I’m going to phrase it this way. If you sort of like Vanderbilt in any way against Texas A&M, I’m not going to say you’re nutso. The +1800 money line could be an all-timer of a value call if you’re looking for something irresponsibly fun, and getting 30.5 is a bit obscene here. Oh sure, A&M should win this with ease, but that’s a whole lot of wood to chop.
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Talk about the rivalry side of this all you want, and of course there’s emotion involved considering Florida State and Miami played some of the greatest games in the history of the sport – the 1987 version might be my favorite regular season game of all-time – but Miami is playing well, and Florida State’s loss to Georgia Tech is inexcusable. If the Canes don’t win this by double digits, tip your cap and move on.
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I honestly don’t know why I have a thing for this South Carolina team. It’ll be a low scoring game against Tennessee, and the half a point might actually matter. As long as Tennessee -3.5 doesn’t duck down anymore, the Gamecocks at home are the safer play.
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I’ll get into this in the upcoming 10 Best Picks Against The Spread piece, but I’ll sum it up this way. If you took Baylor -17.5 against Kansas in each of the last ten games these two have played, you’d have won nine of them. The past doesn’t mean a lick to the guys out there playing now, but never, ever, ever, ever mess with a streak until a streak messes with you.
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Are you really that sure that Virginia Tech is ready to be great right out of the gate? It should be, and it has the potential to be one of the three best teams in the conference, but America sure as shoot likes NC State. The line was VT -11, and it plummeted down to -6.5. State at +200 is another money line flier to consider.
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You know how I mentioned before that the Sun Belt might be reverting back to being the Sun Belt? Troy might be a whole lot better this year, but on gut-feeling – and reading the room a bit – BYU is embarrassed. It’s embarrassed that it missed a game with COVID concerns and problems, and it’s going to come out roaring against the Trojans. The -14 in Provo isn’t bad.
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