3 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread: Week 1

Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports

3 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread: Week 1

Fearless Predictions

3 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread: Week 1

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What three college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 1? Here you go. Enjoy.


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Usually this piece lists the ten best games, and the pickings are slim this week, so these are just the top three. The three lines that appear to be a wee bit favorable are …

3. BYU at Navy

LINE: BYU -1
ATS PICK: Navy
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

It certainly helps that you’re getting points here on the Navy side.

Here’s the belief, and there’s more on this in a moment. Who’s going to be in better shape?

Southern Miss is still probably better than South Alabama, but the Golden Eagles were sucking wind early in the second half of the 32-21 upset loss. The Jaguars appeared to be far fresher, USM wasn’t remotely sharp, and it turned into a big early shocker.

No one’s saying BYU isn’t going to be in fine shape, but Navy should be better able to handle the full 60 minutes right out of the gate. Remember, this hasn’t been a normal offseason, the practices haven’t been quite like they usually are, and on top of all of that, good luck preparing for the option.

BYU hasn’t seen anything like this attack since facing Georgia Tech back in 2013. It won, and that’s seven years ago, but it’s not like dealing with the precision of a properly run option is easily simulated in practices.

It’s all a long-winded way of saying, the home team is getting points in a relatively even overall matchup. Take them.

2. Houston Baptist at North Texas

LINE: North Texas -23
ATS PICK: North Texas
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

This was nice before at North Texas -27.5, and it went down from there.

Houston Baptist has a dangerous passing offense with the upside to keep pressing throughout. It’ll put up close to 300 yards through the air, it’ll connect on several big plays, and it’ll make this game enough fun that you should check it out to see all of the pyrotechnics.

But the Huskies aren’t going to play any defense.

Even since getting destroyed by Portland State 66-7 back in 2015, North Texas has been terrific against FCS programs, going 4-0 and averaging over 52 points per game. Coming off a rough 4-8 season with three straight ugly losses, watch out for the Mean Green offense to keep on pressing as it uses this as the tune-up game.

It might take a late score to get there, but you’re now giving away 24.5. It’s going to keep on pressing.

1. Middle Tennessee at Army

LINE: Army -3.5
ATS PICK: Army
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

Again with the service academies. Again with the likely fitter team to likely be sharper and stronger in Week 1.

Army has actually said it’s operating in a bubble – which is more like the locked down, disciplined world at West Point. In this crazy offseason, it was about as close to being business as usual as possible for the program.

Army might be giving away points while Navy is getting them against BYU, but there’s going to be one big difference between the two games – the time of possession.

Navy will control the clock against the Cougars, but Army might just have the ball for close to 40 minutes. Middle Tennessee operates with an up-tempo offense that can strike quickly, but its run defense is just okay.

Again, to hammer this into the ground, the old cliché of nothing gets a team into football shape like playing football, and the Blue Raider defense is going to be on the field for a long, long time.

If you like the historical nature of things, the last time Middle Tennessee won a season-opener against an FBS team was … 2006 against a FIU team that went winless. 2004 was the last time the program won a lid-lifter on the road.

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