3 Best College Football Point Total Predictions: Week 1

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3 Best College Football Point Total Predictions: Week 1

Fearless Predictions

3 Best College Football Point Total Predictions: Week 1

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What three games appear to be the best bets and the best point total picks going into Week 1? Here you go. Enjoy.


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Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.

Usually this piece lists the ten best games, but without a lot to choose from this week, these are just the top three. The three point totals that appear to be a wee bit favorable are …

3. Arkansas State at Memphis

POINT TOTAL: 74
PICK: Under
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

What’s your last memory of Memphis football? It was probably the wild 53-39 loss to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl.

Maybe, if you didn’t watch a whole lot of the Tigers, it was the Saturday night primetime 54-48 win over SMU.

This is another fantastic offensive team that should put up points in bunches, and that’s partly why the point total went up from 69.5 to 74.

That’s a whole lot of points.

Okay, so how many Memphis games last year against FBS teams got to 74?

Four of the 13. Just three Arkansas State games against FBS teams passed the mark.

These two should put on a show, and there’s nothing fun about going under on a primetime game, but 74 is just too big a number.

1993. That was the last time a Memphis opener against an FBS team got to 74, in a 45-35 win over Mississippi State.

2. Middle Tennessee at Army

POINT TOTAL: 55
PICK: Under
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

Both offenses have to get rolling to get to 55, and there simply might not be enough possessions.

The overall call is that Army will dominate the clock and time of possession. It’ll come up with points, but it’ll go on long, deliberate marches rather than hit the big home runs with its option attack.

This will likely be played more in the 40s than in the mid-to-upper 50s, but the point total hasn’t budged off the 55-point mark.

It’s a new year and these are new teams, but Army games last season only got going against the mediocre teams, and Middle Tennessee’s offense failed to get past 30 points in nine of the 11 games against FBS teams.

55 isn’t asking for a whole lot, but don’t expect either side to get to 30 points unless there’s a major breakdown.

1. SMU at Texas State

POINT TOTAL: 69.5
PICK: Under
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

There are two big issues with the potential of going over here.

First, the Texas State offense is highly questionable. it has a lot of potential, and it’s got a fun style, but it also has to prove it can score.

The program managed to get past 30 points just two times last season, and it got past 17 in just seven of the 12 games, including a 47-17 loss that went well under the 69.5 total of this year’s battle.

The second part is the weather. Thunderstorms are expected in the greater San Marcos metropolitan are for Saturday afternoon, and while the rain shouldn’t keep the two passing games from having fun, it should slow the track down a little bit.

The point total has come down, going from 71.5 to the 69.5, but you should be okay even if SMU’s offense does most of the heavy lifting.

Also, give some thought to the under on the 36.5 first half total. Again, the weather has the potential be a factor, and that matters for the kicking game. Right at kickoff, there’s a 45% chance of rain – but like the under even if it’s nice and sunny.

By the way, the halftime score last year? SMU 13, Texas State 3.

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