Why Nevada Will Win
– Ohio might be great on third downs, but the Nevada defense is a rock when it comes to getting off the field. There were a few times when the D wasn’t anything great on third downs, but overall it’s allowing just 36% of opposing conversion rates and under 40% in seven of the last 11 games. It’s part of the reason why …
– Nevada controls the time of possession battle. The offense isn’t really about ball control, and it’s not dangerous enough overall, but it holds on to the ball for over 32 minutes a game. And that’s Ohio’s game.
The Bobcats have to control the tempo and it has to get its ground game to grind things out – the defense isn’t good enough to be on the field for long periods of time. Nevada needs its D to be off the field, too, and the O can do that.
– The Ohio defense doesn’t have the ability to force mistakes. It doesn’t have a pass rush to bother the Nevada passing game, and the D overall doesn’t force mistakes. Overall, Ohio came up with 13 takeaways on the year and five came in the win over Bowling Green. 0-4 when it doesn’t come up with a turnover, Nevada needs the help.
The Wolf Pack managed to solve the turnover problem it suffered over the first half of the season with fewer than two giveaways in three of their last four games.