College Football Playoff: Every Realistic Playoff Scenario After Utah Lost

College Football Playoff: Every Realistic Playoff Scenario After Utah Lost

College Football Playoff

College Football Playoff: Every Realistic Playoff Scenario After Utah Lost

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After Utah’s loss to Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship, what are all the realistic College Football Playoff scenarios?


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Utah is out … so now what?

We’re down to just six teams – Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma and Baylor for four spots.

Here’s the call – LSU moves up to 1 if it wins the SEC Championship.

If it wins, it’ll have beaten CFP 4 Georgia, 9 Florida, 11 Auburn and 12 Alabama. Ohio State will have beaten 10 Penn State, have two wins over a Wisconsin team that would drop to around 13ish, 14 Michigan, and that might be it if Cincinnati gets bounced out of the AAC.

In other words, LSU would have the better top-line resumé, even if Ohio State played the better overall schedule. So …

Everything goes chalk. LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma all win

1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma

In almost all scenarios going forward, no matter what happens with LSU, Clemson and Ohio State, now that Utah lost …

1/2/3/4. LSU
1/2/3/4. Ohio State
1/2/3/4. Clemson or Georgia or Big 12 champ
1/2/3/4. Clemson or Georgia or Big 12 champ

Ohio State and Clemson win, LSU loses

1. Ohio State
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. LSU

Ohio State and LSU win, Clemson loses

1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Big 12 champion
4. Clemson

LSU and Clemson win, Ohio State loses

1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Big 12 champion

Everything goes chalk, but Ohio State squeaks by Wisconsin and LSU blows out Georgia

1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma

Everything goes chalk, but Ohio State and/or LSU squeak by and Clemson blows out Virginia

1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Big 12 Champion
*This scenario wouldn’t matter – Ohio State and Clemson would be 2/3 in some way.

LSU and Ohio State both lose, Clemson wins

1. Clemson
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. LSU

Ohio State and Clemson both lose, LSU wins

1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Big 12 Champion
4. Clemson

Chaos Time, Part 1 – Ohio State, LSU, Clemson all lose

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. LSU
4. Big 12 Champion

In this scenario, to put in Clemson over a Big 12 champ would set a new precedent that a 12-1 Power Five conference champ would be left out for a team that didn’t win its conference title.

Clemson wouldn’t be a Power Five champion and – unlike Ohio State and LSU – it wouldn’t have a win over anyone in the final College Football Playoff Top 25. But the committee might do what it’s not supposed to and take last year into account, putting in the ultra-talented defending national champion in on a “four best team” argument.

The other part of this would be putting Georgia No. 1. 1) It would be a Power Five champ and Ohio State and LSU wouldn’t, and 2) the committee wouldn’t want a Georgia-LSU rematch in the semifinal.

Chaos time, Part 2 – Ohio State and LSU lose, Clemson wins, and Big 12 champion wins in an ugly blowout

1. Clemson
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. LSU
*You want howling? This would get the world going.

Big 12 champion fans would have a right to break something tasteful if the 12-1 Power Five championship team was left out for two teams that didn’t win their respective conference titles.

On the flip side, if the committee puts in the four 12-1 Power Five champs, it would be a fourth straight season without a Big Ten champion in the College Football Playoff. Good luck with that.

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