USC vs. Arizona State Fearless Prediction, Game Preview

By Pete Fiutak | November 7, 2019 10:54 pm CT

USC vs. Arizona State fearless prediction and game preview.

USC vs. Arizona State Broadcast

Date: Saturday, November 9
Game Time: 3:30 ET
Venue: Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, AZ
Network: ABC

USC (5-4) vs. Arizona State (5-3) Game Preview

Why USC Will Win

Arizona State’s defense has gone bye-bye.

A rock over the first part of the season, it allowed just seven points in each of its first three games – including the win over Michigan State – and was able to hold up reasonably well against a high-powered Washington State team and a great Utah squad.

All of a sudden, the run defense had a problem – allowing 200 yards for the first time all year in last week’s loss to UCLA. The secondary hasn’t been bad, but no it’s 0-3 when allowing more than 7.5 yards per throw – and 5-0 when allowing fewer.

USC is averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt.

The Trojans kept on slinging it in the blowout loss to Oregon last week, even when everything started melting down. Kevon Slovis wasn’t great – the three picks were a killer – but the receiving corps is still among the best in the Pac-12 for an air attack that’s thrown for over 200 yards against everyone but Washington.

The offense will move, but …

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Why Arizona State Will Win

The Trojans are having a few turnover issues. Arizona State isn’t.

USC is -4 in the turnover battle over the last two games and a -9 on the season. They slowed down a bit after a rough start, and then the Oregon meltdown happened with the four giveaways.

The Sun Devils might have a few problems at the moment, but they have yet to lose the turnover battle on the year, they’re a +4 in the last two games with seven takeaways, and they’ve only given up two picks.

This is a better team than it’s been showing lately.

The running game needs to be better with Eno Benjamin handling even more of the workload, and Jayden Daniels has to keep on pushing the ball deep. The ASU passing game works downfield – Daniels is averaging close to nine yards per pass – and he has three touchdown passes in each of his last two games. As long as he’s sharp, ASU can keep up, but …

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What’s Going To Happen

ASU isn’t not a team that works well at changing up on the fly when it’s pushed out of its comfort zone. It needs to control the tempo and does a whole lot better when it doesn’t have to get into a shootouts. That starts with coming up with third down stops.

ASU is 4-0 when opposing offenses aren’t hitting the 50% mark on third down. There’s one problem …

USC is terrific on third downs. It’s averaging 45% on the year and hit the 50% mark in four games.

At home, though, the ASU pass rush will kick in, the defense will be good enough when it has to be, and there will be just enough of an offensive balance to pull this off. USC will have a chance to get the win late, but unlike the game at Colorado, it’ll lose a tight one on the road.

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