College Football Betting Advice, Final Thoughts: Week 11

College Football Betting Advice, Final Thoughts: Week 11

College Football Predictions

College Football Betting Advice, Final Thoughts: Week 11

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Week 11 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews 
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Week 11 Expert Picks & Predictions

The line hasn’t gone up that much considering Vanderbilt doesn’t have any quarterbacks left to play Florida. So you’re a wee bit concerned that it went from Gators -25 up to 26.5? Deuce Wallace on the year has completed 33-of-76 passes for 217 yards with three picks – averaging 2.9 yards per throw – for the Commodores.
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Arkansas can’t lose at home to WKU, can it? I certainly think so, but let me put it this way. You’re not horribly wrong if you want to pick an SEC team at home to win by more than 1.5 over a Conference USA team. There’s a shot you could be right by a ridiculously easy margin, but … WKU has a good enough D to make this a fight.
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The line has gone down from Ole Miss -31 over New Mexico State to 28.5, and I’m not quite sure why. The Aggies have no run defense whatsoever, and the Rebels are in need of a total wipeout of a win after losing three straight. Ole Miss might run for 400 yards.
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I don’t like that the Georgia-Missouri line has gone down. Missouri was solid getting 17 earlier in the week after it opened at a way-loss +14.5, but 16.5 is okay. The concern is that Mizzou isn’t playing all that well, but Georgia’s O doesn’t quite have the pop to make this a total wipeout.
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Do you have a firm grip on Appalachian State-South Carolina, because I sure don’t? I like ASU a whole lot better at +6.5 after it started out just getting four, but … South Carolina is SO flaky. The team that could only hang 24 on Vanderbilt isn’t going to win in a blowout.
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Ohhhhhhhhhh, no, Tennessee. I’m not being seduced by your siren song of three wins in the last four games. There might nothing all that thrilling about what Kentucky does – the forward pass doesn’t really exist on a regular basis – but at home against a team going on the road for just the third time … go Cats.
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Okay, let’s do this.

There’s a large part of me that just thinks Alabama is about to do what it does. The lines are great, the passing game should go off against an LSU NFL secondary that’s stunningly burnable, and enough is enough.

This Joe Burrow thing has been cute and all, but the Tide hasn’t had a chance to make a true statement so far this year against a good team, and now it has the guy to go against.

However, there’s a nagging, gnawing feeling that there’s a 2.7% chance that Santa Clara Clemson is about to roll into Tuscaloosa. Burrow was able to produce against Auburn and Florida defenses loaded with next-level guys, and I wouldn’t be all that stunned if we’re talking next week about how Bama melted down under Nick Saban for the second game in less then ten months against an elite offense with elite NFL players.


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My original call – before looking at the lines – was Alabama -6. I liked that when it was at 5.5, and I’m not pleased now that it’s 6.5 in some places. Considering it’s 6 in several spots, if you have to go one way, go with Bama no matter how Tua Tagovailoa’s ankle is.

Hopefully you were part of the crowd that hammered the under when the total was at 65, bringing it down to 63. That still might be ten points too high, and remember, the two teams were averaging over 40 a game when they met in 2011 before the 9-6 classic – for whatever that’s worth.
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Week 11 Final Thoughts, Investment Advice
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