10 Best Predictions Against The Spread: Week 5

10 Best Predictions Against The Spread: Week 5

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10 Best Predictions Against The Spread: Week 5

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What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 5? Here you go. Enjoy.


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If it’s possible to have a dog days weekend of college football, this is it.

There aren’t any massive showdowns, so this is the week to focus on the grind as conference play starts to kick in.

There’s some good value out there, but you have to look for it.

After last week’s disastrously weird string of events – Washington State collapsing when up, North Carolina not being able to get by Appalachian State, SMU beating TCU – the pivot starts now.

Here are the ten games that look to be a wee bit favorable …

10 Best ATS Picks So Far: 20-23


Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.

10. Ohio State at Nebraska

LINE: Ohio State -17.5, o/u: 66
ATS PICK: Ohio State
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

Ohio State has a defense, and so far, Nebraska doesn’t.

The Husker offense has been fantastic so far, but the Buckeye machine hasn’t come close to being slowed down with parts that are overall better than what Nebraska brings.

The two offenses will go toe-to-toe, but you’re going to like the Buckeyes with the 17.5 because of Chase Young and a Buckeye defense that leads the nation in sacks and is second in tackles for loss. Expect Ohio State to get to Adrian Martinez enough to be a bother.

Speaking of Big Ten defenses …

9. Indiana at Michigan State

LINE: Michigan State -14, o/u: 44
ATS PICK: Michigan State
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

It’s always a little bit scary to rely on the Michigan State offense – see the Arizona State game – but the defense has been a reliable rock allowing ten points or fewer in three of the four games. The one outlier was against Western Michigan in a 51-17 blowout.

The Indiana offense is fine against the UConns and Ball States of the world, but on the road, expect fewer 17 points and expect the Spartan offense to do what it did against Northwestern last week and efficiently push past 30.

8. Florida Atlantic at Charlotte

LINE: Charlotte -1, o/u: 65.5
ATS PICK: Florida Atlantic
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

There’s a little bit of a reason to worry here with a Charlotte team that’s playing well and be just that good, but hasn’t played anyone great yet.

The offense geared it up in a 56-41 loss to Appalachian State, and it’s no sin to get pasted by Clemson, but beating Gardner-Webb and UMass didn’t show too much outside of the big offense.

It’s the same thing for FAU with losses to Ohio State and UCF and wins over Ball State and Wagner, but you’re basically asking for the more talented Owls to win this on the road while getting a point. It’s not the surest of sure things – FAU lost at home to Charlotte last year with bowl eligilbilty on the line – but Lane Kiffin’s team has yet to show what it can really do.

7. Buffalo at Miami University

LINE: Buffalo -2.5, o/u: 47.5
ATS PICK: Buffalo
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

To dive deep into the analytics here and to go way too granular, why take Buffalo in this?

Just because.

Forget the 76-5 loss to Ohio State and the blowout losses to Iowa and Cincinnati, the RedHawks haven’t been able to show much of anything offensively so far with the one win coming against Tennessee Tech.

Buffalo pulled off one of the weirdest wins of last week as it throttled a Temple team coming off a win over Maryland coming off a win over Syracuse team that shut out Liberty who beat Buffalo 35-17 and …

MU is at home, and don’t go heavy here if you do, but go with the team that just hammered the team that beat the team that … just because.

Okay … and because UB’s offense is fantastic on third downs and has what might be the best defense in the MAC.

6. Northern Illinois at Vanderbilt

LINE: Vanderbilt -6.5, o/u: 52.5
ATS PICK: Vanderbilt
Bet on this, BetMGM latest line

You know how Northern Illinois used to be this killer MAC team with a great running game and dangerous defense that lived in backfields? It hasn’t shown up yet.

Granted, it’s hard to judge too much after going against Utah and Nebraska on the road, but it was a struggle to get by Illinois State, too. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has shown you next to nothing.

Georgia, at Purdue, LSU. All losses, all blowouts, all bad. But at home, like the SEC team by a touchdown against a MAC offense that’s the second-worst in the nation in third down conversions and can’t run a lick.

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