What ten games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into the first weekend of Week 4? Here you go. Enjoy.
Oooooookay, enough of that.
After a strange week when Air Force (Colorado), Temple (Maryland), Kansas (Boston College) and Arizona State (Michigan State) not only covered, but won outright, now it’s time to go for the stand up doubles.
No crazy calls here. No wacky theories. Nothing but by-the-book, rock-solid winners to get back to a sense of normalcy …
And then Tulane can’t come up with a fourth down stop and pulls off an epic final two plays to screw up what should’ve been a locked-down Houston +5.5 cover. Moving on …
10 Best ATS Picks So Far: 17-16
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
LINE: Florida State -6.5, o/u: 61.5
ATS PICK: Louisville
Florida State really has shown just enough – especially on offense – to think that a corner is about to be turned. It’s a home game, it’s a must-win, and it’s against a Louisville squad that’s okay, but hasn’t yet proven itself against anyone who’s all that great … like ULM.
The Seminoles have yet to prove they can beat anyone – other than ULM, of course – much less do it convincingly. Always hate the idea of picking a team to cover but not win – FSU should pull this off – but it would hardly be stunning if the Cardinals won this outright.
LINE: Baylor -25, o/u: 58.5
ATS PICK: Baylor
This is an anti-Rice pick. The Owls were able to stay within 20 of Wake Forest, but they don’t have the offense to keep up in any way once Baylor starts to get rolling. The Bears haven’t played anyone yet – Stephen F. Austin and UTSA – but they’ve hung up 56 and 63 points on the board, respectively.
Rice has scored a grand total of 41 points in three games.
This appears to be just enough of a special Baylor ofBostonfense to be able to push past the 25, and then it’s just a question of whether or not the team wants to make a statement before getting into Big 12 play.
LINE: Kent State -10.5, o/u: 62.5
ATS PICK: Bowling Green
Let’s just make this simple. When was the last time Kent State beat an FBS team by double-digits? Buffalo 44-20 in 2016.
However, here’s the crazy part if you care about trends and historical sides of things. Since the amazing run to the MAC championship in 2012, the Golden Flashes have just ten wins over FCS teams in those seven-plus years. Five of them were by ten or more.
This team hasn’t shown much offensively so far, and while Bowling Green has been awful – scoring just seven points against Kansas State and Louisiana Tech – now it’s playing someone its own size.
LINE: Georgia -14.5, o/u: 57.5
ATS PICK: Notre Dame
There’s a chance Georgia is just that special and it pulls a 2018 Clemson on the Irish.
There’s no real Notre Dame running attack to speak of – at least compared to last year – when it comes to getting past the Dawg defensive front, and it’s very, very possible that the No. 3 team goes about its business with little to no drama. However …
14.5 points are just too many to give away to a team with the lines to hold up.
Go ahead and take the shot that the Irish defense is just solid enough to keep this from getting out of hand, and take the shot that this becomes more of a methodical Bulldog performance than anything spectacular.
LINE: Syracuse -5, o/u: 65.5
ATS PICK: Syracuse
Granted, you’re taking a bit of a risk here with a Syracuse team that’s shown a fat load of jack squat offensively so far, including in the shutout win over Liberty. How much will the Orange be down after the losses to Maryland and Clemson? Is Western Michigan’s offense really as explosive as the 57-10 win over Georgia State?
This should be tight and it won’t be a breeze, but the Syracuse pass rush has been fantastic, and the offense should be able to move a bit against a Bronco D that can’t stop anyone on third downs. If the Orange running game was ever going to work, this would be the week.