LINE: Alabama -55.5, o/u: 64.5
ATS PICK: New Mexico State
Last year I gave you my belief before the Alabama-Citadel game that you always take 50+ points if someone wants to give them to you. Too many things have to happen for any team to win a game by more than the half-century mark, and if they all come together, you tip your cap and move on.
Of course Alabama is going to destroy the Aggie team that lost to Washington State last week. But to the point of the massive spread, Wazzu was nearly flawless, it kept playing for all four quarters, and it annihilated NMSU – by 51.
Even last season when the Aggies got crushed by Utah State and allowed 60 points, they still lost by 47. They allowed 66 to the Ragin’ Cajuns of Louisiana and lost by 28.
This is more about Alabama, though.
Nick Saban’s team put up 62 on Ole Miss last year and BARELY covered the 54.5 spread. Two years ago, the Tide rolled the Rebels by 63, and they stomped on Mercer 56-0, but for the most part, they get up fast, rest everyone, and move on.
Again, this is more about a belief system. Someone is handing you 55.5 points. You take them.