LINE: Michigan State -9.5, o/u: 37.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
There’s a tried and true theory when it comes to picking teams against the spread that if someone wants to give you 50 points, you take them. That’s why if, say, New Mexico State is a 55-point underdog against Alabama, you go with it because so many things have to happen to get there.
A random Aggie score, a Bama 52-0 win, a missed assignment by a third-teamer – it’s HARD to lose by more than 55 – and New Mexico State didn’t.
It’s HARD for two Power Five teams to not combine for 38 points.
As Nick Shepkowski put it in this week’s CFN Podcast, you could cut this in half and not be crazy to take the under.
The Michigan State defense could stall the hapless Northwestern O to ten points. The Wildcats could go stall ball and win this 14-10. These two could absolute come nowhere near the number.
Or, the final score could be 29-19 like it was last year. Or 39-31 like it was the year before. Or 54-40 like it was in 2016 …
Or 30-6 when they squared off in 2013.
But take the chance that this get to 38 without too much of a problem. Again, keeping with the theme for the week, Michigan State could get there by itself.