1. SAN DIEGO STATE WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN
2018 showed the one big flaw in how San Diego State conducts its business.
There’s almost no margin for error if the O doesn’t roll.
The offense was far more explosive in 2017, and it blew up for 40 points or more six times in 2016. The 268 points scored last season was the first time the team was below the 400 mark in four years, and now things have to turn around in a hurry.
The line has to be better, QB Ryan Agnew has to be more consistent and accurate, and it all has to be done with a revamped receiving corps that’s missing most of the key parts.
Fortunately, the running back situation is among the best of any Group of Five program, and Agnew should be fine with a little time. Even better, the defense is still going to be a killer.
Offense, your job is to score more than 30 points. Do that – it only happened once last season – and win.
There will be some grinds along the way for a team that managed to struggle against San Jose State and Sacramento State, and totally whiff in the Frisco Bowl loss to Ohio and at home against UNLV – but there’s a big positive in that. Three of the losses were by four points or fewer.
Reverse that margin of error, and everything goes back to normal under head coach Rocky Long.
Set The Regular Season Win Total At … 9
Out of the six road games, only one – Hawaii – is against a team that went bowling last season. One of them is at UCLA, and that’s the only date against a Power Five program.
There’s no Boise State to deal with from the Mountain, and the West division showdowns against Nevada and Fresno State are at home.
Even so, the UCLA game is hardly a sure thing, and even with a more than manageable slate, there will be at least three losses in all. If the Aztecs can hold on and own their home games, though, a double-digit win regular season is a realistic goal.