2. Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
5-10, 207: Be honest … what’s your goal here?
Is he the next Andrew Luck or Cam Newton? Obviously, he’s not that big – and those two former No. 1 overall picks are athletic, too.
Is he the next Russell Wilson or Drew Brees? He’s smaller than those two, and both of them had big bodies of work in college – Murray only got it done for one year – and those two are anomalies considering the last few decades of Super Bowl quarterbacks.
But Brees wasn’t Brees right away – he was the last pick in the 2001 first round for San Diego – and Wilson was a flier for a Seattle team that banked on Matt Flynn being the main man.
Is he the next Baker Mayfield? It’s only been one okay season, and Mayfield’s biggest asset is being Baker Mayfield – Murray doesn’t have the type of personality that can instantly energize a franchise.
Of course Murray is a deadly-accurate passer beyond just the Lincoln Riley Oklahoma system, and of course he’s a superior winner – starting from his historic days as an all-timer Texas high school star – and of course he can start in the NFL. But look at what you’re asking for.
If he’s a No. 1 overall pick – especially in a year with so many unbelievably talented defensive prospects – then he has to be the guy who wins a team a Super Bowl because he’s just that good, and he has to be the guy who gives the team a shot each and every time out for at least ten years.
So what’s your goal here? Are you hoping for a transcendent talent who takes over the league? Okay … if you think that might be Murray, then you make your call and go for it, but you’re banking EVERYTHING on a 5-10, 207-pound guy to be able to last 16+ games.
And who had one really good season.
So blow off the size issue for now. The arm strength is unquestionably good enough, the unteachable accuracy is ingrained, there’s no bust factor outside of the injury concerns for a guy his size – he’s NOT Johnny Manziel – and you don’t win like this guy did without having something special that’s missing from most quarterbacks.
A whole lot of very smart, very good offensive minds swear that he’s the real deal and is just that sort of talent worthy of making the franchise guy. In terms of value and risk, though, this is one of the biggest calls in NFL Draft history.
Projected Round: Top Five Overall
Real Value: Second Round