As spring football is rolling, where should the win total be set by Las Vegas for every college football team … for now?
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Vegas doesn’t lie.
When it comes to where the bar is set for something like the regular season win totals for college football teams, the idea is to get it as close to the pin as possible, and then let the investment public make the call.
Based off of the schedules, timing of the big games, and the talent coming back, here’s around where the win total futures will likely be. Once they’re released for real, we’ll circle back and go after where the values are.
The win total line projections are based on the regular season – bowl games or conference championships don’t count. And remember, this is a cold business. The investment market will set the line as the offseason goes on.
Two big things about this.
1) The 3 Key Games are NOT the biggest games on each team’s schedule – of course Alabama-Auburn, UCF-USF, etc. are the most important. These are the three 50/50 games for each team. They’re the ones that everyone will have to make a hard call on to figure out what the right win total number should be.
2) These are not our predictions for each team. They’re the calls on where we think Vegas will set the respective future win total lines. Or, it’s where they should be set.
Future Win Total Team Projections
2.5 Wins or More | 4.5 Wins or More
6 Wins or More | 7.5 Wins or More
8.5 Wins or More | 9.5 Wins or More
FUTURE WIN TOTAL PROJECTIONS: 2.5
Rice
2018 Record: 2-11
2019 Future Win Total Projection: 2.5
3 Key Games: 1) at UTEP, Nov. 30, at UTSA, Oct. 19, 3) North Texas, Nov. 23
– Schedule Analysis | C-USA Win Total Breakdown
San Jose State
2018 Record: 1-11
2019 Future Win Total Projection: 2.5
3 Key Games: 1) Tulsa, Sept. 7, 2) New Mexico, Oct. 5, 3) at UNLV, Nov. 23
– Schedule Analysis | MW Win Total Breakdown
FUTURE WIN TOTAL PROJECTIONS: 3.5
Bowling Green
2018 Record: 3-9
2019 Future Win Total Projection: 3.5
3 Key Games: 1) at Kent State, Sept. 21, 2) CMU, Oct. 19, 3) Akron, Nov. 2
– Schedule Analysis | MAC Win Total Breakdown
Connecticut
2018 Record: 1-11
2019 Future Win Total Projection: 3.5
3 Key Games: 1) East Carolina, Nov. 23, 2) at Tulane, Oct. 12, 3) at UMass, Oct. 26
– Schedule Analysis | AAC Win Total Breakdown
Kansas
2018 Record: 3-9
2019 Future Win Total Projection: 3.5
3 Key Games: 1) Texas Tech, Oct. 26, 2) Baylor, Nov. 30, 3) Kansas State, Nov. 2
– Schedule Analysis | Big 12 Win Total Breakdown
New Mexico State
2018 Record: 3-9
2019 Future Win Total Projection: 3.5
3 Key Games: 1) Liberty, Oct. 5, 2) UTEP, Nov. 23, 3) at New Mexico, Sept. 21
– Schedule Analysis | Ind Win Total Breakdown
Oregon State
2018 Record: 2-10
2019 Future Win Total Projection: 3.5
3 Key Games: 1) at Hawaii, Sept. 7, 2) Arizona State, Nov. 16, 3) Utah, Oct. 12
– Schedule Analysis | Pac-12 Win Total Breakdown
Rutgers
2018 Record: 1-11
2019 Future Win Total Projection: 3.5
3 Key Games: 1) Maryland, Oct. 5, 2) Minnesota, Oct. 19, 3) at Illinois, Nov. 2
– Schedule Analysis | Big Ten Win Total Breakdown
UTEP
2018 Record: 1-11
2019 Future Win Total Projection: 3.5
3 Key Games: 1) Rice, Nov. 30, 2) Charlotte, Nov. 9, 3) UTSA, Oct. 5
– Schedule Analysis | C-USA Win Total Breakdown
FUTURE WIN TOTAL PROJECTIONS: 4
Ball State
2018 Record: 4-8
2019 Future Win Total Projection: 4
3 Key Games: 1) CMU, Nov. 16, 2) at Kent State, Nov. 23, 3) Miami Univ., Nov. 29
– Schedule Analysis | MAC Win Total Breakdown
Central Michigan
2018 Record: 1-11
2019 Future Win Total Projection: 4
3 Key Games: 1) Akron, Sept. 14, 2) at Ball State, Nov. 16, 3) at Bowling Green, Oct. 19
– Schedule Analysis | MAC Win Total Breakdown
Kent State
2018 Record: 2-10
2019 Future Win Total Projection: 4
3 Key Games: 1) Bowling Green, Sept. 21, 2) Ball State, Nov. 23, 3) Buffalo, Nov. 14
– Schedule Analysis | MAC Win Total Breakdown
Texas State
2018 Record: 3-9
2019 Future Win Total Projection: 4
3 Key Games: 1) South Alabama, Nov. 9, 2) at Coastal Carolina, Nov. 30, 3) Georgia State, Sept. 21
– Schedule Analysis | Sun Belt Win Total Breakdown
UMass
2018 Record: 4-8
2019 Future Win Total Projection: 4
3 Key Games: 1) at Charlotte, Sept. 14, 2) Liberty, Nov. 2, 3) UConn, Oct. 26
– Schedule Analysis | Ind Win Total Breakdown
Future Win Total Team Projections
2.5 Wins or More | 4.5 Wins or More
6 Wins or More | 7.5 Wins or More
8.5 Wins or More | 9.5 Wins or More
