When it comes to where the bar is set for something like the regular season win totals for college football teams, the idea is to get it as close to the pin as possible, and then let the investment public make the call.
Based off of the schedules, timing of the big games, and the talent coming back, here’s around where the win total futures will likely be. Once they’re released for real, we’ll circle back and go after where the values are.
The win total line projections are based on the regular season – bowl games or conference championships don’t count. And remember, this is a cold business. The investment market will set the line as the offseason goes on.
Two big things about this.
1) The 3 Key Games are NOT the biggest games on each team’s schedule – of course Alabama-Auburn, UCF-USF, etc. are the most important. These are the three 50/50 games for each team. They’re the ones that everyone will have to make a hard call on to figure out what the right win total number should be.
2) These are not our predictions for each team. They’re the calls on where we think Vegas will set the respective future win total lines. Or, it’s where they should be set.