The final thoughts, a few predictions, and some investment advice to make your life a heck of a lot better than it currently is for Super Bowl LIII between New England and Los Angeles.
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Has anything happened over the two weeks before this Super Bowl?
The NBA trade world has dominated the sports headlines and has been trending more than anything involving the NFL.
Roger Goodell made a speech and said words about stuff, but couldn’t bring himself to say, “yeah, the officials screwed up in New Orleans, but the Saints should’ve run on first down and they should’ve come up with a defensive stop.”
All of the controversy is on the musical side, with Travis Scott getting blowback and Maroon 5 about to make America miss the Up With People halftime shows.
But we know the game itself is going to be fun, because all New England Patriot Super Bowls are terrific.
So what’s going to happen in your Super Bowl LIII, what are the best prop bets to go after?
This is all just for spits, giggles, and entertainment purposes only. However, just in case you dabble …
Top prop bet predictions at the bottom of this thing.
One of the big-time media stars – forgive me; I can’t remember which one – made a statement that not enough was made about what New England accomplished just to get here. My first thought was how ridiculous that was – all anyone seems to talk about is New England, New England, New England.
But he – I think it was Ian Rappaport – was right.
I have this sad-but-neat parlor trick, being able to go coast-to-coast listing off all 53 Super Bowl matchups in order. It really is unbelievable that this whole New England era and run started in 2001 and just keeps on rolling.
To put this into perspective, the distance between the Patriots’ first Super Bowl with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to now is the same as the time between Joe Montana’s 49er win over Dan Marino’s Dolphins in Super Bowl XIX to end the 1984 season and that New England win over the Rams.
And remember, there was a massive gap in between winning one of these things, going ten years between beating Philadelphia in XXXIX to picking off Seattle in XLIX. Even if you hate the Patriots, try to enjoy this. It really is something special.
My big worry? I had the same sort of “Alabama always plays amazing national championship games” thought before this year’s College Football Playoff. If this is a blowout in any way, my guess is that it would be the Rams getting the pass rush going and looking two steps quicker.
If you like the money line, oh hell yeah on the Rams at +120. 125 if you can get it.
Let’s end this right now. If Los Angeles wins this, New Orleans doesn’t get the right to claim anything.
“If you guys were the inventors of Facebook, you’d have invented Facebook.”
If you Saints were the NFC Champions, you’d have won the NFC Championship.
The party line seems to be that the two weeks off favors New England. It was able to get more rest, and Belichick got extra time to prepare for the game. I think this helps LA.
Of course Todd Gurley didn’t get much work against New Orleans because he’s banged up. Of course. But …
Gurley got extra time off, and the Ram defensive front should be recharged. How do beat Brady in a Super Bowl? Either you pull everything out of your butt to make it happen – like Philly did last year – or you hit him over and over and over again.
Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh are going to hit Brady over and over and over again.
On the flip side, if New England wins this game, it’ll probably be with a pounding ground game and a massive time of possession advantage. How did the Rams lose to Chicago earlier this year? They were beaten up.
It’s never fair to label a team as soft. But if the Patriots pound and pound and pound, it’ll be hard for Sean McVay and a team from Los Angeles to shake that until it’s proven otherwise.
Time of possession doesn’t mean much of anything when Brady is throwing for 500 yards, but the Eagles kept the Patriots off the field last year, having the ball for almost nine more minutes by converting 10-of-16 third down chances.
Time of possession will probably turn out to mean everything in this.
I’m torn. I do think the Rams can be punched in the mouth. I’m not the slightest bit sold on Jared Goff, and there might be something to the thought that Gurley really is sort of messed up physically and needs an offseason get right again. But …
Yeah, the Rams caught a mega-break with the no-call against New Orleans. New England got just an even bigger gift from the gods when Dee Ford lined up offsides. The Patriots make and get their own breaks, but they 1) got the good fortune of an LA team – the Chargers – at home in the deep cold for the Divisional round, and 2) totally outplayed Kansas City, and needed a few minor miracles to survive and advance.
The 2.5 points are irrelevant. Either you’re picking the Rams or the Patriots, straight up. And again, if you like the Rams, money line, money line, money line.
It’s rookie ball, but go with the over on the 56, just because. It came down from 57.5, but when you’re watching this thing at a party, the last thing you want is to be on the wrong side of a shootout.
If you want to have some fun, play the over. If you want to make the smart call – at least historically – go under.
The conditions are going to be perfect, and the two offenses are too talented to bog down. Here’s your problem.
Starting with the Patriot XXXIX win over Philadelphia to end the 2004 season, out of the last 14 Super Bowls, ten of them went under the 56, and Green Bay-Pittsburgh in XLV hit the mark. Yeah, the last two went over, but it took overtime for New England-Atlanta for one to get there, and the other was a strange anomaly in Minneapolis.
How many New England regular season games went over 56? Four. But the two playoff games blew past that.
How many Los Angeles regular season games went over 56? Seven of the 16, and both playoff games went under.
Putting them on the table … go under. Go Los Angeles +2.5.
But for where the real money is going …