Wisconsin vs. Purdue fearless prediction and game preview.
Broadcast
Date: Saturday, November 17
Game Time: 3:30 ET
Venue: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
Network: BTN
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Wisconsin (6-4) vs. Purdue (5-5) Game Preview
One Reason Why Wisconsin Will Win
Lost in the disastrous finishing kick has been Jonathan Taylor.
He’s been the best running back in college football, but no one is noticing because the team has been such a massive disappointment.
He’s 452 yards away from a 2,000-yard season, but throwing in the bowl game – the Badgers are bowl eligible – and he has to average just over 150 yards over the last three games to get there.
Fumbling problems kept him under wraps against Northwestern, but he busted out against Rutgers for 208 yards and had the one good play last week against Penn State, ripping off a huge touchdown run early on in his 185-yard performance.
The Badger offense isn’t consistent, and there’s no passing game with Alex Hornibrook having concussion issues, but against a Purdue defensive front that just got hammered by Minnesota for 265 yards, this is the time to get nasty.
The offensive line hasn’t been able to take over games on a regular basis, but it’s too talented not to come up with something special. However …
One Reason Why Purdue Will Win
The Jack Coan experience has been a problem.
The sophomore has been thrown into the mix with Hornibrook out, and he has been really, really … not good.
All of a sudden, Hornibrook looks like Aaron Rodgers.
To be fair, the coaching staff hasn’t turned him loose. The game plans have been to hope for the running game to take over, rely on the defense, and hide the passing game. That worked against Rutgers, but not against Northwestern or Penn State.
That’s probably not going to fly against Purdue, either.
After not getting anything going deep on Minnesota, Purdue QB David Blough needs to start airing it out again. Good for close to 300 yards or more in six of his seven games before the debacle in Minneapolis, he has to at least be efficient.
Penn State’s Tracy McSorley couldn’t hit 60% of his passes if he was throwing against air, but he connected on 76% of his throws last week against the Badger secondary. Michigan’s Shea Patterson didn’t bomb away, but he completed 70% of his throws in the blowout win.
If Blough is accurate and keeping the chains moving, he’ll be doing his job.
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What’s Going To Happen
Wisconsin has had a turnover problem.
It’s -4 in turnover margin over the last two weeks, and in the four losses it’s -5, and +6 in the wins. Purdue isn’t great at taking the ball away, with just one in each of the last six games. In the ten games, it’s only come up with multiple takeaways once.
And then there’s the much-maligned Badger secondary.
It hasn’t been all that bad. It’s only allowed three touchdown passes over the last five weeks and picked off six passes.
This hasn’t been pretty for Wisconsin, but the O line will take over right away, and the defense will be just good enough against Blough to survive.
The Badgers are way, way overdue for a decent performance against a good team. This will be it.
Fearless Prediction & Line
Wisconsin 31, Purdue 20
Line: Purdue -4.5, o/u: 52.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 3
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