LINE: Clemson -39, o/u: 61
ATS PICK: Louisville
Louisville is awful.
The defense is among the worse in the country, the run D is non-existent, the turnovers are flowing, and the offense hasn’t been able to keep up the pace thanks to lousy line.
It’s been among the most disappointing teams of the 2018 season, and now it’s a loss away from ensuring a losing campaign.
Clemson is not awful.
It’s kicking it all in at just the right time, obliterating Florida State in a 59-10 win, with the defense dominating, Trevor Lawrence getting better, and the team starting to look and play like a potential No. 1 overall seed.
But the 39 is just too massive of a number.
At home, Clemson will win without too much of a problem. Louisville really does have way too many problems, and the lines really are about to get destroyed. But what it does have is just enough of a passing game to put up just enough points to cover.
Clemson might have whacked Florida State by 49 and Wake Forest by 60, but those are the only two times this year it beat FCS teams by 40 or more.
Louisville got absolutely destroyed by Alabama to start the season – and it lost by 37.
Georgia Tech ran wild on the Cardinals hanging 66 on the board, and it didn’t win by 40.
Clemson can – and will – win this easily, but all it will take is a few excuse me Cardinal scores. The Tigers can score 50, and still potentially not cover.
It’s not going to be a fun watch, but there’s enough of a buffer to be okay.