LINE: Air Force -13.5, o/u: 56.5
ATS PICK: New Mexico
Both teams are bad, both teams need this to keep unrealistic bowl hopes alive, and they’re both just bad enough on the same level to keep this close.
Air Force was able to stop Navy in a 35-7 blowout earlier this year. That’s the team’s only win over an FBS squad by double-digits, and it’s now on a run of three losses in the last four games.
The run defense has been good. It’s just strong enough to slow down the New Mexico attack that’s been struggling, but that 13.5 is just way too large.
The Lobos were destroyed by Fresno State and Utah State, and they lost to Colorado State as part of a run of four straight losses and five of the last six games. They’ve beaten absolutely no one – taking down Incarnate Word, New Mexico State, and UNLV – and they’re going to lose.
However, the run defense has been able to hold up reasonably well, only giving up more than 200 yards to Wisconsin in the second game of the season.
Air Force is better, but that 41-35 win over UNLV might just be the comp. New Mexico is bad, but again, the 13.5 is a bit high.