Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt fearless prediction and game preview.
Date: Saturday, November 17
Game Time: 7:30 ET
Venue: Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, TN
Network: SEC Network
Ole Miss (5-5) vs. Vanderbilt (4-6) Game Preview
One Reason Why Ole Miss Will Win
Vanderbilt has been more than just competitive over the last several weeks. But it still can’t stop anyone from marching on decent drives.
The defense just can’t get off the field. The secondary doesn’t get torched, but the lack of a consistent pass rush continues to be a problem – and it’s going to be a huge issue this week.
The Commodores have been right there in battles with Kentucky, Missouri, Florida and Notre Dame, but when opposing offenses want a first down, they get it.
And it’s been getting worse.
Vandy is allowing teams to convert a whopping 49% of their third down chances, and each of the last six games the D has allowed 50% or more.
Third down conversions mean everything to the Rebels.
Ever since they bombed away on Texas Tech in the opener, they’re 0-5 when converting fewer than 40% of their chances, and 4-0 when converting more.
One Reason Why Vanderbilt Will Win
It seems like this is the plan every week, but it holds true this week more than ever.
Kyle Shurmur, be amazing.
The Commodores have enough of a running game to balance out the offense, but against this Rebel secondary, Shurmur has to kick the passing attack into high gear.
Last year he hit just 45% of his passes, and the Rebels couldn’t keep up in a blowout loss. He was far sharper as a sophomore, threw for 273 yards and hit his downfield throws, and the Commodores won.
Teams are having too much success on the ground to keep throwing, but the Rebel secondary doesn’t pick off passes – just four against FBS teams – and it’s allowed 230 yards or more in every game but the win over Arkansas and the loss to Auburn – and both of those teams hit their throws.
Shurmur has to keep his own defense off the field by moving the chains. Like the Vandy D, Ole Miss can’t stop anyone from hitting on the money downs on a regular basis, either.
What’s Going To Happen
Oh will this be fun.
The two are punching their weight in what should be a terrific fight with lots of passing, lots of good drives, and plenty of scoring.
Vandy needs to win this, and win next week to keep bowl hopes alive, but there’s a problem.
It doesn’t know how to win. At least, not against anyone who’s amazing.
But neither does Ole Miss.
Shurmur will be great, Ke’Shawn Vaughn will pass the 170-yard rushing mark for the third straight game, and Vandy will set everything up for a date against Tennessee for bowl eligibility.
But it’ll take a whole lot of yards and a whole lot of big plays to get there.
Fearless Prediction & Line
Vanderbilt 41, Ole Miss 37
Line: Vanderbilt -2.5, o/u: 67
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 3
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