Iowa State vs. Texas fearless prediction and game preview.
Date: Saturday, November 17
Game Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: Royal Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Network: Longhorn Network
Iowa State (6-3) vs. Texas (7-3) Game Preview
One Reason Why Iowa State Will Win
Can Iowa State bog everything down and bring Texas to its level?
How are the Cyclones doing this? How are they destroying a West Virginia here, and dropping a Texas Tech there, and shocking Oklahoma State?
They’re not turning the ball over or committing a ton of penalties – they’re not giving away a lot of easy points. They’re playing solid pass defense – a must in the wild and crazy Big 12. And they’re playing good special teams.
They’re doing almost all of the little things right.
The Texas defense isn’t coming up with much on third downs, there’s not enough pressure on the quarterback, and the team is getting flagged way too often.
Cyclone QB Brock Purdy continues to be deadly accurate – he’s averaging close to 11 yards per throw and he hasn’t thrown a pick in the last three games – and David Montgomery and the running game are doing just enough to get by.
But it’s the defense.
No one has gashed the Cyclone defensive front, and while the secondary is allowing yards, it’s not giving up a whole slew of big plays.
Again, to harp on the theme, the team hasn’t lost the turnover battle yet in Big 12 play.
One Reason Why Texas Will Win
Montgomery is out for the first half against the Longhorns after being involved in the kerfuffle against Baylor last week. He might not be tearing it up on the ground, but his presence and his talent are enough to take the pressure off Purdy and everyone else on the offense.
The Cyclones have shown the ability to crank up the O, but they’re not necessarily built for wild shootouts. They might have outlasted Oklahoma State and shut down West Virginia, but they lost to Oklahoma – granted, before Purdy was under center.
Texas Tech lost, but it managed to get the O going with 333 yards through the air. At home, this is where Sam Ehlinger has to go off – that hasn’t been a problem lately.
But more than anything else, he’s just not making mistakes.
Again, Iowa State is great when it comes to turnover margin, and Ehlinger isn’t giving the ball away – he hasn’t thrown an interception since Week One.
After six straight close games, this is a battle-tested team that’s used to playing tough down the stretch. Ehlinger isn’t going to make the big mistake Iowa State might need to pull this off.
What’s Going To Happen
The winner is still deep in the hunt for the Big 12 title, while the loser is effectively done. Iowa State has been playing more than well enough to win this, and it’s going to make it a fight throughout, but now it’s going on the road.
It lost at TCU and Iowa, battled at Oklahoma State, and the other win was ay Kansas. Texas might not be great as a front-runner under Tom Herman – and it might have been a strange and trying week for the head coach in a few ways – but the team will come through late in a wild and fun game.
This was a defensive fight last year – Texas won 17-7. That’s not happening this time.
Fearless Prediction & Line
Texas 38, Iowa State 34
Line: Texas -3, o/u: 46.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 4
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