Auburn vs. Alabama fearless prediction and game preview.
Date: Saturday, November 24
Game Time: 3:30 ET
Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Auburn (7-4) vs. Alabama (11-0) Game Preview
One Reason Why Auburn Will Win
Be amazing, Jarrett Stidham.
The Auburn running game is what it is – it’s not going to be The Citadel’s, and Alabama’s D isn’t Liberty.
The Alabama defensive front is eating up everything else – it gave up a season-high 275 yards last week to the Bulldogs and Auburn ran for 340 against the Flames – and there won’t be a 200-yard day against this group.
This has to be Stidham’s big, giant, special day. It was that against Georgia, too, and it didn’t happen. He wasn’t awful, but his guys just weren’t open. He has to be the NFL-caliber starter who makes the offense go no matter what.
Last year he was razor sharp against the Tide, hitting 75% of his passes with no picks in the win. But he had a running game to help, too.
He has to keep the chains moving and hit his third down throws, and the run defense has to hold up just enough to not get gouged.
There are some dings in the Bama backfield. RB Damien Harris is coming off a concussion, Tua Tagovailoa’s knee is still a thing, and the Auburn defensive front is good enough to exploit it all.
Get a solid day out of Stidham, the defensive front has to play with its hair on fire, and yeah, it’s going to take a few Alabama mistakes to pull this off.
One Reason Why Alabama Will Win
The Tiger secondary can get tagged.
Auburn is okay at picking off passes, and it doesn’t get beaten that often, but when it has problems, it gets bad in a hurry.
The Tigers were able to beat Ole Miss, but Jordan Ta’amu went for 324 yards. Jarrett Guarantano looked like Jared Goff in Tennessee’s upset win, and Georgia got enough big plays out of the midrange passing game to pull ahead.
Tagovailoa will be under pressure, but he’ll get the ball out of his hands in a hurry and let his receivers do the rest. He’ll average more than nine yards per pass and should be able to hit on enough home runs – or, at least, the two needed – to let the defense do the rest.
How amazing has the Bama defensive front been? Before The Citadel went The Citadel – it didn’t complete a pass – the Tide allowed 70 rushing yards or fewer in the previous four games.
In 2011, when Georgia Southern and its option offense went off on Bama for 302 yards, Bama bounced back and stuffed Auburn in a 42-14 win the following week.
Again, Auburn isn’t going to start running well, and …
What’s Going To Happen
Stidham isn’t going to be good enough.
The Auburn defense will be jacked up for a few drives, but the O won’t go anywhere against the Tide defensive front, Stidham won’t get anything going deep, and the Alabama offensive trickle will turn into a waterfall.
Tagovailoa will open it up in the second quarter, and the defense will take care fo the rest.
It won’t be a thing of beauty, but after losing last year, the Bama fans will take it.
Fearless Prediction & Line
Alabama 38, Auburn 10
Line: Alabama -24.5, o/u: 52.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Must See Rating: 4.5
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