LINE: Florida -7, o/u: 50.5
ATS PICK: Florida
Florida hasn’t lost to Vanderbilt in Nashville since 1988, and has lost only one other time in the series since then. Granted, this hasn’t been a great year for the Gators and streaks – considering the loss to Kentucky early on – but there’s a reason this has been so lopsided.
This is a bad, bad matchup for the Commodores. They can’t run, and they have to be able to bomb away to keep this close. QB Kyle Shurmur is just good enough to do that, but he couldn’t get the O going against Georgia in last week’s 41-13 loss, and Florida’s secondary is every bit as good, if not better.
So why is the line just seven? Florida doesn’t have the most dynamic of offenses, and the betting public that saw Vandy’s 22-17 loss to Notre Dame might be just a wee bit overinflating that.
But the Commodore offense has failed to score more than 17 points in its last three games against FBS teams, and struggled in the 31-27 win over Tennessee State.
Florida’s defense isn’t going to give up 20, and the offense should be able to get to at least 28 without breathing too hard.