North Carolina vs. Virginia fearless prediction and game preview.
Date: Saturday, October 27
Game Time: 12:20 ET
Venue: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
Network: ACC Network
North Carolina (1-5) vs. Virginia (5-2) Game Preview
One Reason Why North Carolina Will Win
The team is really, really close to finally being okay, but it needs to figure out how to win.
It could easily be 3-2 right now after losing brutally close games over the last two weeks, and it’s overdue to come up with the right break at the right time late.
The Tar Heel offense has the running game working, with over 600 yards over the last three games, and on the year it’s averaging over five yards per carry.
For all of the good things Virginia is doing, it doesn’t have an explosive offense and it’s not going to score in bunches. The Tar Heels have the pass rush and the pressure in the backfield from one side, and they have the ground game on the other.
Again, they’re overdue to put it all together, and if they can get out to an early lead and force the Cavaliers to fight back, they should be able to do it.
One Reason Why Virginia Will Win
Virginia’s big issues is coming up with third down stops. It’s great at slowing games down, and it’s able to get control of games early on, but it’s having problems against teams that can move the chains.
That’s not going to be a problem. Virginia will own the time of possession battle, and the UNC offense that’s converting just 32% of its third down tries is going to misfire on those few moments that they’ll need to keep the Cavalier offense off the field.
The Virginia defensive front has been great against the run, keeping everyone but Indiana – who ran only because it was raining and the conditions were bad to throw – to under 200 yards on the ground. The Cavs will give up yards to the UNC passing game, but they might be a bit empty.
Make the Tar Heels win by making big plays at key times. They can’t do it, and the Virginia defense is great at winning those moments.
What’s Going To Happen
Again, North Carolina doesn’t know how to win.
The Cavaliers are finding ways to win when they probably shouldn’t and the Tar Heels are losing when they probably shouldn’t.
But it’s all there for North Carolina to finally break through.
It has the pass rush to get to Bryce Perkins and bother him a bit, the offense has the passing game kicking in that Duke and Miami – the last two wins for the Cavs – don’t, and …
Virginia has figured out how to do what it does, defy logic, and get wins. At home, the defense will come up with the right stops at the right times to keep on winning.
And North Carolina will lose another close battle.
Fearless Prediction & Line
Virginia 23, North Carolina 20
Line: Virginia -9, o/u: 51
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2.5
Must See Rating: 3
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